1.The following memorandum is from the business manager of Happy Pancake House restaurants.
"Butter has now been replaced by margarine in Happy Pancake House restaurants throughout the southwestern United States. Only about 2 percent of customers have complained, indicating that an average of 98 people out of 100 are happy with the change. Furthermore, many servers have reported that a number of customers who ask for butter do not complain when they are given margarine instead. Clearly, either these customers cannot distinguish butter from margarine or they use the term 'butter' to refer to either butter or margarine. Thus, we predict that Happy Pancake House will be able to increase profits dramatically if we extend this cost-saving change to all our restaurants in the southeast and northeast as well."
下面这段文字节选自Happy Pancake House经理的备忘录。
Happy Pancake House在美国西南部的餐厅用人造黄油代替了天然黄油。只有大约2%的顾客曾经投诉，这说明100个人中有98人对于这种替换是乐于接受的。而且，很多服务生说很多仍然要了天然黄油的顾客在被给予人造黄油的时候并没有投诉。显然，这些顾客要么分不清天然黄油和人造黄油，要么是用"天然黄油"这个词汇来指天然黄油或人造黄油。因此，为避免购买天然黄油的花费，Happy Pancake House应该把这项节省措施推广到在东南部以及东北部的餐厅。
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.
132. The following appeared in a letter to the school board in the town of Centerville.
"All students should be required to take the driver's education course at Centerville High School. In the past two years, several accidents in and around Centerville have involved teenage drivers. Since a number of parents in Centerville have complained that they are too busy to teach their teenagers to drive, some other instruction is necessary to ensure that these teenagers are safe drivers. Although there are two driving schools in Centerville, parents on a tight budget cannot afford to pay for driving instruction. Therefore an effective and mandatory program sponsored by the high school is the only solution to this serious problem."
下面这段文字出自写给Centerville镇学校委员会的一封信。
Centerville高中的所有学生都应该被要求参加驾驶员培训课程。在过去两年中，Centerville周围有几起交通事故涉及了青少年驾驶者。由于Centerville的一些家长抱怨说他们太忙没有时间教他们的孩子驾驶，必须有一些其他的课程来保证这些孩子成为安全的驾驶者。尽管在Centerville已经有两所驾校，手头不宽裕的家长无法负担驾校学费。因此由学校组织的有效的强制性课程是解决这一严重问题的唯一方案。
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
133. The following memorandum is from the business manager of Happy Pancake House restaurants.
"Butter has now been replaced by margarine in Happy Pancake House restaurants throughout the southwestern United States. Only about 2 percent of customers have complained, indicating that an average of 98 people out of 100 are happy with the change. Furthermore, many servers have reported that a number of customers who ask for butter do not complain when they are given margarine instead. Clearly, either these customers cannot distinguish butter from margarine or they use the term 'butter' to refer to either butter or margarine. Thus, to avoid the expense of purchasing butter and to increase profitability, the Happy Pancake House should extend this cost-saving change to its restaurants in the southeast and northeast as well."
下面这段文字出自Happy Pancake House restaurants一位业务经理的备忘录。
Happy Pancake House在美国西南部的餐厅用人造黄油代替了天然黄油。只有大约2%的顾客曾经投诉，这说明100个人中有98人对于这种替换是乐于接受的。而且，很多服务生说很多仍然要了天然黄油的顾客在被给予人造黄油的时候并没有投诉。显然，这些顾客要么分不清天然黄油和人造黄油，要么是用"天然黄油"这个词汇来指天然黄油或人造黄油。因此，为避免购买天然黄油的花费，Happy Pancake House应该把这项节省措施推广到在东南部以及东北部的餐厅。
Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.
134. The following appeared in a letter to the school board in the town of Centerville.
"All students should be required to take the driver's education course at Centerville High School. In the past two years, several accidents in and around Centerville have involved teenage drivers. Since a number of parents in Centerville have complained that they are too busy to teach their teenagers to drive, some other instruction is necessary to ensure that these teenagers are safe drivers. Although there are two driving schools in Centerville, parents on a tight budget cannot afford to pay for driving instruction. Therefore an effective and mandatory program sponsored by the high school is the only solution to this serious problem."
下面这段文字出自写给Centerville镇学校委员会的一封信。
Centerville高中的所有学生都应该被要求参加驾驶员培训课程。在过去两年中，Centerville周围有几起交通事故涉及了青少年驾驶者。由于Centerville的一些家长抱怨说他们太忙没有时间教他们的孩子驾驶，必须有一些其他的课程来保证这些孩子成为安全的驾驶者。尽管在Centerville已经有两所驾校，手头不宽裕的家长无法负担驾校学费。因此由学校组织的有效的强制性课程是解决这一严重问题的唯一方案。
Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.
135. The data from a survey of high school math and science teachers show that in the district of Sanlee many of these teachers reported assigning daily homework, whereas in the district of Marlee, most science and math teachers reported assigning homework no more than two or three days per week. Despite receiving less frequent homework assignments, Marlee students earn better grades overall and are less likely to be required to repeat a year of school than are students in Sanlee. These results call into question the usefulness of frequent homework assignments. Most likely the Marlee students have more time to concentrate on individual assignments than do the Sanlee students who have homework every day. Therefore teachers in our high schools should assign homework no more than twice a week.
一项对高中数学和科学教师的调查资料显示，Sanlee地区很多教师每天都布置家庭作业，而Marlee地区的大多数科学和数学老师每周只有两到三天布置作业。尽管家庭作业少，Marlee地区的学生比Sanlee地区总体成绩更好，并且很少被留级。这些结果让人们质疑频繁布置家庭作业是否有用。和Sanlee 地区的学生每天都要做作业相比，Marlee地区的学生有更多的时间专注于自己的兴趣。因此，我们的高中老师应该每周最多布置两次作业。
Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.