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1. The following memorandum is from the business manager of Happy Pancake House restaurants.
"Butter has now been replaced by margarine in Happy Pancake House restaurants throughout the southwestern United States. Only about 2 percent of customers have complained, indicating that 98 people out of 100 are happy with the change. Furthermore, many servers have reported that a number of customers who ask for butter do not complain when they are given margarine instead. Clearly, either these customers cannot distinguish butter from margarine or they use the term 'butter' to refer to either butter or margarine. Thus, to avoid the expense of purchasing butter and to increase profitability, the Happy Pancake House should extend this cost-saving change to its restaurants in the southeast and northeast as well."
下面这段文字节选自Happy Pancake House经理的备忘录。
Happy Pancake House在美国西南部的餐厅用人造黄油代替了天然黄油。只有大约2%的顾客曾经投诉，这说明100个人中有98人对于这种替换是乐于接受的。而且，很多服务生说很多仍然要了天然黄油的顾客在被给予人造黄油的时候并没有投诉。显然，这些顾客要么分不清天然黄油和人造黄油，要么是用"天然黄油"这个词汇来指天然黄油或人造黄油。因此，为避免购买天然黄油的花费，Happy Pancake House应该把这项节省措施推广到在东南部以及东北部的餐厅。
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.
2. The following appeared in a letter from the owner of the Sunnyside Towers apartment building to its manager.
"One month ago, all the showerheads on the first five floors of Sunnyside Towers were modified to restrict the water flow to approximately one-third of its original flow. Although actual readings of water usage before and after the adjustment are not yet available, the change will obviously result in a considerable savings for Sunnyside Corporation, since the corporation must pay for water each month. Except for a few complaints about low water pressure, no problems with showers have been reported since the adjustment. Clearly, restricting water flow throughout all the twenty floors of Sunnyside Towers will increase our profits further."
下面这段文字出自Sunnyside Towers apartment所有者给它的管理者的一封信。
一个月前，Sunnyside塔楼一至五层的所有淋浴喷头的水压被调成只有以前的大约三分之一。尽管在调节之后用水量的确切读数还没有出来，但这种变革显然将为Sunnyside公司节省大量的花费，因为公司必须每月为所用的水付费。除了关于低水压的几起投诉，在调节之后没有发生关于淋浴喷头的问题的报告。显然，在Sunnyside塔楼所有的20层都限制水压将会增加我们未来的利润。
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.
3. The following appeared in a health magazine.
"The citizens of Forsythe have adopted more healthful lifestyles. Their responses to a recent survey show that in their eating habits they conform more closely to government nutritional recommendations than they did ten years ago. Furthermore, there has been a fourfold increase in sales of food products containing kiran, a substance that a scientific study has shown reduces cholesterol. This trend is also evident in reduced sales of sulia, a food that few of the most healthy citizens regularly eat."
下面这段文字出自一份健康杂志。
Forsythe的居民选择了更健康的生活方式。他们对于最近一项调查的回答显示，他们的饮食习惯比十年前更加贴近政府的营养饮食建议。而且，含有kiran的食品销量增长了四倍，在一次科学研究中发现kiran是一种能够降低胆固醇水平的物质。这种趋势同样也被sulia的销量下降所证实，sulia是那些最健康的居极少经常食用的食品。
Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.
4. Humans arrived in the Kaliko Islands about 7,000 years ago, and within 3,000 years most of the large mammal species that had lived in the forests of the Kaliko Islands had become extinct. Yet humans cannot have been a factor in the species' extinctions, because there is no evidence that the humans had any significant contact with the mammals. Further, archaeologists have discovered numerous sites where the bones of fish had been discarded, but they found no such areas containing the bones of large mammals, so the humans cannot have hunted the mammals. Therefore, some climate change or other environmental factor must have caused the species' extinctions.
大约7000年前人类到达了Kaliko岛。在3000年内曾经生活在Kaliko岛树林中的大型哺乳动物绝大多数已经灭绝了。然而人类并不是导致这些物种灭绝的因素，因为没有证据表明人类与这些哺乳动物有任何接触。而且，考古学家发现一些有大量鱼骨被抛弃的场所，而他们并没有发现存在大型哺乳动物骨头的类似场所，因而人类并没有猎杀这些哺乳动物。因此，一定是一些气候上的变化或其他环境因素导致了这些物种的灭绝。
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
5. The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.
"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people ten to twenty-five years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."
下面这段文字出自一份商业杂志的社论。
尽管Whirlwind游戏公司的游戏销量在过去两年中下降了，最近一次对于电子游戏玩家的调查显示这种销售趋势可能会逆转。该调查询问游戏玩家对于一个游戏来说他们认为的最重要特征是什么。调查结果显示，玩家倾向于那些需要在最先进的电脑上玩的具有逼真图像的游戏。Whirlwind刚刚面向10-25岁的人群开展了大量的广告活动来推广若干此类游戏，因为这个年龄段的人群最喜欢玩游戏。Whirlwind公司的游戏销量将会在未来几个月内猛增。
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.