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1. The following appeared in a health newsletter.
"A ten-year nationwide study of the effectiveness of wearing a helmet while bicycling indicates that ten years ago, approximately 35 percent of all bicyclists reported wearing helmets, whereas today that number is nearly 80 percent. Another study, however, suggests that during the same ten-year period, the number of bicycle-related accidents has increased 200 percent. These results demonstrate that bicyclists feel safer because they are wearing helmets, and they take more risks as a result. Thus, to reduce the number of serious injuries from bicycle accidents, the government should concentrate more on educating people about bicycle safety and less on encouraging or requiring bicyclists to wear helmets."
下面这段文字出自一则健康新闻。
一项为期十年的对于在骑自行车时戴头盔的作用的研究显示，10年前，所有骑车人中大约有35%报告说他们戴头盔，现在这个比例接近80%。然而另外一项调查显示在相同的十年期间，因骑车引起的事故数量增加了200%。这些结果说明骑车人因为戴着头盔而感到更安全，因而导致他们面临更大的危险。因此，为减少自行车事故中严重伤害的数量，政府应该更多地对人们加强自行车安全的教育，并且不再要求或鼓励骑车人带头盔。
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
2. The following is a letter to the head of the tourism bureau on the island of Tria.
"Erosion of beach sand along the shores of Tria Island is a serious threat to our island and our tourist industry. In order to stop the erosion, we should charge people for using the beaches. Although this solution may annoy a few tourists in the short term, it will raise money for replenishing the sand. Replenishing the sand, as was done to protect buildings on the nearby island of Batia, will help protect buildings along our shores, thereby reducing these buildings' risk of additional damage from severe storms. And since beaches and buildings in the area will be preserved, Tria's tourist industry will improve over the long term."
下面这段文字出自写给Tria岛旅游局局长的一封信。
Tria岛海岸沙滩的侵蚀对于我们岛和我们的旅游业是个严重的威胁。为阻止侵蚀，我们应该对使用海滩的人收费。尽管这一解决方案会在短期内激怒少量游客，它将会减少使用海滩的人数并增加补充沙子的资金。像临近的Batia岛一样补充沙子将会有助于对沿岸建筑的保护，从而减少这些房屋在大风暴中受损的危险。并且由于这会导致沿岸地区更具吸引力，海滩将会受到保护，本地区的旅游业将会在长远得到发展。
Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.
3. The following appeared in a memorandum written by the chairperson of the West Egg Town Council.
"Two years ago, consultants predicted that West Egg's landfill, which is used for garbage disposal, would be completely filled within five years. During the past two years, however, the town's residents have been recycling twice as much material as they did in previous years. Next month the amount of recycled material—which includes paper, plastic, and metal—should further increase, since charges for pickup of other household garbage will double. Furthermore, over 90 percent of the respondents to a recent survey said that they would do more recycling in the future. Because of our town's strong commitment to recycling, the available space in our landfill should last for considerably longer than predicted."
下面这段文字出自West Egg Town Council主席写的一篇备忘录。
两年前，我们的顾问预言West Egg用于投放垃圾的填埋地将在五年内完全填满。然而在过去两年间，市民对于材料的循环再生的数量比以前翻了一番。由于垃圾收集的收费在下个月将会加倍，循环再生的材料数量将进一步增加。而且，最近一次调查超过90%的回应者表示他们将会在未来做更多的循环再生工作。由于居对循环再生的有力支持，我们填埋地可利用空间的使用时间将比预期的长得多。
Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.
4. The following appeared in a letter to the editor of a journal on environmental issues.
"Over the past year, the Crust Copper Company (CCC) has purchased over 10,000 square miles of land in the tropical nation of West Fredonia. Mining copper on this land will inevitably result in pollution and, since West Fredonia is the home of several endangered animal species, in environmental disaster. But such disasters can be prevented if consumers simply refuse to purchase products that are made with CCC's copper unless the company abandons its mining plans."
下面这段文字节选自写给一家环保杂志社编辑的一封信。
去年，Crust Copper Company (CCC)在热带国家West Fredonia购买了上百万平方英里的土地。在这些地方开采铜矿将会不可避免地导致污染和环境灾害，因为West Fredonia是很多濒危物种的栖居地。但如果消费者简单地拒绝购买用CCC生产的铜制造的产品直到CCC放弃它的采矿计划就可以避免这种灾害。
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
5. The following is part of a memorandum from the president of Humana University.
"Last year the number of students who enrolled in online degree programs offered by nearby Omni University increased by 50 percent. During the same year, Omni showed a significant decrease from prior years in expenditures for dormitory and classroom space, most likely because instruction in the online programs takes place via the Internet. In contrast, over the past three years, enrollment at Humana University has failed to grow, and the cost of maintaining buildings has increased along with our budget deficit. To address these problems, Humana University will begin immediately to create and actively promote online degree programs like those at Omni. We predict that instituting these online degree programs will help Humana both increase its total enrollment and solve its budget problems."
下面这段文字节选自Humana大学校长的备忘录。
去年报名参加附近Omni大学在线学位项目的学生人数上升了50%。同年，Omni用于宿舍和教室的开支比前一年显著下降，很可能是因为在线教学通过互联网授课。相反，在过去三年中，Humana大学的报名人数没有增长，但用于房屋维护的费用和预算赤字增加了。因此，为解决以上这些问题，Humana大学也应该立即开展并积极推广类似Omni的在线学位项目。我们相信，在线学位项目的推广将帮助Humana增加总招生人数并且解决预算赤字问题。
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.