大家都知道
1.Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic regions. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of the year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the purported decline in deer populations is the result of the deer's being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea.
北极鹿生活在加拿大北极地区的岛上。一年中他们在不同的岛间的冰面上移动寻找食物。它们的生活区域被限制在那些足够温暖能够保证他们吃的植物得以生长，同时又足够冷，至少在一年中的某些时候，能够让冰面足够覆盖两个岛之间的海域以确保鹿群能从冰面上走过。不幸的是，根据本地猎人的报告，鹿的数量正在减少。这一报告正好和最近全球气候变暖的趋势相吻合。全球变暖使得海冰融化，我们可以得出鹿的数量的减少是由于它们不能再保持它们古老的跨越海洋的迁徙生活了。
Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.
2.The following is a recommendation from the Board of Directors of Monarch Books.
"We recommend that Monarch Books open a café in its store. Monarch, having been in business at the same location for more than twenty years, has a large customer base because it is known for its wide selection of books on all subjects. Clearly, opening the café would attract more customers. Space could be made for the café by discontinuing the children's book section, which will probably become less popular given that the most recent national census indicated a significant decline in the percentage of the population under age ten. Opening a café will allow Monarch to attract more customers and better compete with Regal Books, which recently opened its own café."
下面是一封来自Board of Directors of Monarch Books的建议书。
我们建议Monarch Books在店内开一家咖啡馆。Monarch Books在同一地点已经经营了20年，拥有了庞大的用户群，因为人们可以广泛选择所有科目的书籍。显然，开一家咖啡馆将会吸引更多的顾客。最近的一次全国人口普查的数据显示，低于10岁的人口所占的比重将大幅下降，儿童书籍将很有可能变得不那么畅销。所以应该撤销儿童书籍部分，腾出来的空间用来建咖啡馆。建咖啡馆将会使Monarch吸引更多的顾客并且更好地与最近刚开了咖啡馆的Regal Books竞争。
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.
3.The following appeared in a memo from the director of student housing at Buckingham College.
"To serve the housing needs of our students, Buckingham College should build a number of new dormitories. Buckingham's enrollment is growing and, based on current trends, will double over the next 50 years, thus making existing dormitory space inadequate. Moreover, the average rent for an apartment in our town has risen in recent years. Consequently, students will find it increasingly difficult to afford off-campus housing. Finally, attractive new dormitories would make prospective students more likely to enroll at Buckingham."
下面这段文字出自Buckingham College学生公寓管理员的备忘录。
为满足我们学生的住房需求，Buckingham学院应该建造一幢新的宿舍。Buckingham的报名人数正在增加，而且按照现有趋势，报名人数将会在未来50年中增加一倍，从而导致现有住宅不能满足要求。而且，我们镇上公寓的平均租金在近几年间上涨了。因此，学生将会越来越发现难于负担校外住宿费用。最后，一幢引人注目的新宿舍将会使未来的学生更愿意报考Buckingham。
Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.
4.Nature's Way, a chain of stores selling health food and other health-related products, is opening its next franchise in the town of Plainsville. The store should prove to be very successful: Nature's Way franchises tend to be most profitable in areas where residents lead healthy lives, and clearly Plainsville is such an area. Plainsville merchants report that sales of running shoes and exercise clothing are at all-time highs. The local health club has more members than ever, and the weight training and aerobics classes are always full. Finally, Plainsville's schoolchildren represent a new generation of potential customers: these schoolchildren are required to participate in a fitness-for-life program, which emphasizes the benefits of regular exercise at an early age.
Nature's Way，一家经营健康食品和其他与健康相关产品的连锁商店将在Plainsville镇开设下一个特许加盟店。这家店应该会很火。Nature's Way的连锁店往往在倡导健康生活的地方最为盈利，而Plainsville正是这样的地方。Plainsville商人说跑鞋和运动服的销量处于历史最高点。当地健身俱乐部比其他任何时候有更多的会员，重量训练和健身操课总是爆满。最后，Plainsville在校学生是新一代潜在消费者，他们被要求参加一个健康生活的项目，这个项目强调年龄小的时候参加有规律运动的好处。
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
5.Twenty years ago, Dr. Field, a noted anthropologist, visited the island of Tertia. Using an observation-centered approach to studying Tertian culture, he concluded from his observations that children in Tertia were reared by an entire village rather than by their own biological parents. Recently another anthropologist, Dr. Karp, visited the group of islands that includes Tertia and used the interview-centered method to study child-rearing practices. In the interviews that Dr. Karp conducted with children living in this group of islands, the children spent much more time talking about their biological parents than about other adults in the village. Dr. Karp decided that Dr. Field's conclusion about Tertian village culture must be invalid. Some anthropologists recommend that to obtain accurate information on Tertian child-rearing practices, future research on the subject should be conducted via the interview-centered method.
20年前著名人类学家Field博士访问了Tertia岛，并且用以观察为中心的研究方法，得出了这样的结论：Tertia的儿童是由整个村庄的人抚养大的而不是由他们的双亲。最近，另外一名人类学家Dr. Karp也访问了Tertia岛，并用以采访为中心的方法研究了岛上儿童抚养传统。通过对儿童的采访发现孩子们谈到他们双亲的时间要远多于谈到村庄中其他成年人的时间。Dr. Karp由此认为Dr. Field博士关于Tertia村庄文化的结论是错误的。有些人类学家认为要想获得Tertia儿童抚养传统的准确信息，在将来的研究中应该使用以采访为中心的方法。
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.