Arg-43
The following appeared in a memo from the mayor of the town of West Egg:
"Two years ago, our consultants predicted that West Egg's landfill, which is used for garbage disposal, would be completely filled within five years. During the past two years, however, town residents have been recycling twice as much aluminum and paper as they did in previous years. Next month the amount of material recycled should further increase, since charges for garbage pickup will double. Furthermore, over ninety percent of the respondents to a recent survey said that they would do more recycling in the future. Because of our residents' strong commitment to recycling, the available space in our landfill should last for considerably longer than predicted."
【满分范文赏析】
In this memo West Egg's mayor indicates that a variety of factors lead to an increase in recycling and a reduction in the amount of trash deposited in the landfill. The landfill, he states, should not be full for considerably longer than previously projected. To support this projection the mayor cites the following evidence: (1) a twofold increase in aluminum and paper recycling by West Egg residents over the last two years, (2) an impending twofold increase in charges for trash pickup, and (3) a recent survey in which 90% of respondents indicated that they intend to do more recycling in the future. For several reasons, however, I am not convinced that the mayor's projection is accurate.
【本段结构】
本文采用了标准的Argument开头段结构，即C—A—F的开头结构。本段首先概括原文的Conclusion，之后简要提及原文为支持其结论所引用的一系列Assumption及细节，最后给出开头段到正文段的过渡句，指出原文的Flaw，即这些Assumption无法让原文的结论具有说服力。
【本段功能】
作为Argument开头段，本段具体功能就在于发起攻击并概括原文的结论，即West Egg垃圾池的装满要比之前顾问预期的晚。本段接下来提到了原文中为支持之前的Conclusion所提供的证据，包括West Egg居民对于某些特定垃圾的回收量上升了，对于居民征收的垃圾处理费用加倍，以及最近的一项调查表明居民们在将来会做更多的垃圾回收。文章提及这些信息，为是在正文段中对这些Assumption即将进行的具体攻击做铺垫。
To begin with, aluminum and paper may account for only some of the materials West Egg's residents can recycle. Perhaps recycling of other recyclable materials (plastic and glass) has declined to the point that the total amount of recycled materials has also declined. If so, then the mayor could hardly justify the claim that West Egg's residents are becoming more committed to recycling.
【本段结构】
本段采用了标准的Argument正文段结构，即先是提及原文的第一个逻辑错误，之后分析该逻辑错误的原因，接下来，进一步分析这样的错误为什么让原文的Conclusion不成立。
【本段功能】
作为正文第一段，本段攻击原文所犯的第一个重要逻辑错误——因果类错误。原文假设对铝制品和纸制品的废物回收工作能够减少垃圾的排放量。但是，这样的假设忽视了其它相关的因素，毕竟这两种特定的垃圾回收也许只占总垃圾回收的一部分而已。那么原文的结论就不能成立。
Another problem with the argument is that an increase in the amount of recycled materials does not necessarily indicate a decrease in the total amount of trash deposited in the city's landfill. Admittedly, if West Egg residents previously disposed of certain recyclable materials that they now recycle instead, then this shift from disposal to recycling would serve to reduce the amount of trash going to the landfill. However, the mayor provides no evidence of such a shift.
【本段结构】
本段采用了标准的Argument正文段结构，即先是提及原文的第二个逻辑错误，之后分析该逻辑错误的原因，接下来，进一步分析这样的错误为什么让原文的Conclusion不成立。
【本段功能】
作为正文第二段，本段攻击原文所犯的第二个重要逻辑错误——因果类错误。原文假设垃圾回收的增加一定能够减少West Egg地区整体垃圾的排放量。但是，和第一个假设类似，作者忽视了其它相关的因素，因为可以回收的垃圾也许只是占了当地垃圾排放的小部分而已。因此在没有考虑到这些因素的情况下，原文的这个假设也是不合理的。
Moreover, the argument overlooks the possibility that the recycling habits of West Egg residents are the only factor affecting how quickly the landfill will reach capacity. Other such factors might include but are not limited to population shifts, demographic shifts, and the availability of alternative disposal methods. Yet another problem with the argument involves the mayor's implicit claim that increased charges for trash pickup will serve to slow the rate at which the landfill is reaching capacity. No evidence presented in the argument substantiates this claim.
【本段结构】
本段采用了标准的Argument正文段结构，即先是提及原文的第三个逻辑错误，之后分析该逻辑错误的原因，接下来，进一步分析这样的错误为什么让原文的Conclusion不成立。
【本段功能】
作为正文第三段，本段攻击原文所犯的第三个重要逻辑错误——因果类错误。原文假设垃圾堆填满的速度仅仅和人们的丢放垃圾的习惯有关。但是，和第二个假设类似，作者忽视了和垃圾填方速度相关的其它因素。因此，原文并不能证明这样的假设成立，进而不能证明其结论有意义。
Finally, the mayor provides no evidence that the survey's respondents are representative of the overall group of people whose trash goes to the city's landfill. It is entirely possible that people inclined to recycle were more willing to respond to the survey than other people were. In short, without better evidence that the survey is statistically reliable the mayor cannot rely on it to draw any firm conclusions about the overall recycling commitment of West Egg residents.
【本段结构】
本段采用了标准的Argument正文段结构，即先是提及原文的第四个逻辑错误，之后分析该逻辑错误的原因，接下来，进一步分析这样的错误为什么让原文的Conclusion不成立。
【本段功能】
作为正文第四段，本段攻击原文所犯的第四个重要逻辑错误——样本类错误。原文假设关于居民对垃圾循环态度的调查是有说服力的。但是，原文作者并没有证明调查的回答者能够代表West Egg当地居民的真实态度。所以，原文的结论并不成立。
In sum, the mayor's projection may be accurate but based on the memo one cannot definitely tell. The mayor should provide direct evidence that the amount of trash going to the landfill is declining and that this trend will not reverse for any reason. To better assess the accuracy of the mayor's projection it would be useful to know who, besides West Egg residents, deposit trash in the landfill, if anyone else is depositing trash there, an audience would require all of the relevant information from that as well.
【本段结构】
本段采用了标准的Argument结尾段结构，即C—S的结尾结构。首先再次重申原文Conclusion是站不住脚的，接下来给出可以增强原文说服力的合理的Suggestion，包括原文作者需要进一步提供的证据和细节信息等。
【本段功能】
段作为结尾段，具体功能即为总结归纳+提出建议。段落首先再次重申强调原文作者的论证不合理，接下来给出合理的建议：原文作者应当提供证据表明垃圾的填放量的确是下降了，且这一趋势会继续下去。同时，除了West Egg当地的居民外，是否有其他人在这些垃圾池扔垃圾。此外，不难发现，结尾段总结提出的建议与正文各段中依次攻击的错误遥相呼应，即分别对应了因果类错误和样本类错误，这使全篇文章显得浑然一体。
【满分要素剖析】
【语言表达】
本文的语言使用规范、清晰，词汇也用得准确地道，并使用多变的句式让考官读起来津津有味，这些都是
1) In this memo West Egg's mayor indicates that… (标志性的Argument开头段引出原文结论的语言表达形式。)To support this projection the mayor cites the following evidence… For several reasons, however, I am not convinced that the mayor's projection is accurate…(标志性的指出文章错误的语言表达。整体开头段是标准的C—A—F的语言和逻辑模版体系。)
2) Another problem with the argument is that an increase in the amount of…does not necessarily indicate a decrease in the total amount of… Admittedly… However, the mayor provides no evidence of such a shift.(标志性的个体增减并不代表整体增减的因果类错误的语言和逻辑模版体系。)
3) Finally, the mayor provides no evidence that the survey's respondents are representative of the overall group of people whose… It is entirely possible that… In short, without better evidence that the survey is statistically reliable the mayor cannot rely on it to draw any firm conclusions about… (标志性的样本不具有代表性导致样本类错误的语言和逻辑模版体系。)
4) In sum, the mayor's projection may be accurate but based on the memo one cannot definitely tell. The mayor should provide direct evidence that… To better assess the accuracy of the mayor's projection it would be useful to know…(标志性的Argument结尾段的conclusion-suggestion体系的语言和逻辑模版体系)
【逻辑结构】
本文的写作体现出了非常严谨的开头段—正文段1、2、3、4—结尾段的逻辑体系：
(开头段)In this memo West Egg's mayor indicates that…
(正文段1)To begin with…
(正文段2)Another problem with the argument is that…
(正文段3)Thirdly, the nationwide study indicating that …
(正文段4)Finally, the mayor provides no evidence that…
(结尾段)In sum, the mayor's projection may be accurate but…