Arg-9
Nature’s Way, a chain of stores selling health food and other health-related products, is opening its next franchise in the town of Plainesville. The store should prove to be very successful: Nature’s Way franchises tend to be most profitable in areas where residents lead healthy lives, and clearly Plainesville is such an area. Plainesville merchants report that sales of running shoes and exercise clothing are at all-time highs. The local health club has more members than ever, and the weight training and aerobics classes are always full. Finally, Plainesville’s schoolchildren represent a new generation of potential customers: these schoolchildren are required to participate in a fitness-for-life program, which emphasizes the benefits of regular exercise at an early age.
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
【满分范文赏析】
In this memo the vice president of Nature’s Way (NW), a chain of stores selling health food and health-related products, recommends opening a store in Plainesville. To support this recommendation the vice president cites the following facts about Plainesville: (1) sales of exercise shoes and clothing are at all-time highs; (2) membership at the local health club has peaked; and (3) the city’s schoolchildren are required to participate in a fitness program. Close scrutiny illuminates the fact that the assumptions lend little credible support to the recommendation.
【本段结构】
本段采用了标准的Argument开头段结构，即C—A—F的开头结构。段落首先概括原文的Conclusion，接下来概括原文为支持其结论所引用的一系列Assumption，最后给出开头段到正文段的过渡句，指出原文的Flaw，即其Assumption不能为其结论提供可靠的支持。
【本段功能】
本段作为Argument开头段，具体功能就在于发起攻击并概括原文的结论，即NW应在Plainesville开店。本段接下来分布列举了原文中NW的副总裁为支持其结论所引用的事实：(1)锻炼鞋和服装的销售量空前的高;(2)当地健身俱乐部的会员数达到最高点;(3)该市的学童被要求参加一个健康计划。这些信息的归纳为正文段中即将进行的具体攻击作铺垫。
Let’s first examine the assumptions that strong sales of exercise apparel indicated that Plainesville residents would be interested in NW’s products, or even that these residents are interested in exercising. Consider the possibility that exercise apparel could be in fashion. Perhaps exercise apparel is inexpensive compared to other types of clothing. For that matter, perhaps the stronger-than-usual sales are due to increasing sales to tourists. In short, without a conclusive market analysis, the vice president fails to provide a link between the sales of exercise clothing and the projected sales revenue of a new franchise. Therefore, a conclusion based on this particular assumption, that Plainesville residents would be interested in health food based on the sales of a particular style of clothes, is entirely undependable.
【本段结构】
本段采用了标准的Argument正文段结构，即：概括第一个逻辑错误的错误类型和其在原文中出现的位置，接下来给出合理的理由和他因来反驳原文。
【本段功能】
本段作为正文第一段，攻击原文中出现的第一个重要逻辑错误——因果类错误。原文的因果链条如下：
P镇运动服饰销量高àP镇居民对健身感兴趣àP镇居民对NW的健康食品感兴趣。
这一因果链并不成立。首先，并不能推出，造成的原因也有可能是运动服的价钱便宜，或是旅游业带动等等。其次，即便成立，也不一定说明居民对NW健康食品感兴趣。因此还需要提供具体的市场调查等证据来表明成立。
Next, let’s examine the assumption that because membership at the Plainesville gym is at an all-time high, a potential demand for health food and health-related products exists. The memo contains no evidence to support this assumption. Lacking such evidence, it is equally possible that aside from exercising,Plainesville residents have little interest in leading a healthy lifestyle. In fact, perhaps as a result of regular exercise, they believe they are sufficiently fit and healthy and do not need a healthy diet.
【本段结构】
本段采用了标准的Argument正文段结构，即：概括第二个逻辑错误的错误类型和其在原文中出现的位置，接下来给出合理的理由和他因来反驳原文。
【本段功能】
本段作为正文第二段，攻击原文中出现的第二个重要逻辑错误——因果类错误。原文假设Plainesville的健身俱乐部会员数空前的高意味着存在对于健康食品和健康相关产品的潜在需求。然而，原文没有提供任何证据支持这一假设。如果缺少这样的证据，事实同样可能是Plainesville的居民除了运动外对于引领健康的生活方式毫无兴趣。或许是经常锻炼的结果，Plainesville的居民可能会相信他们已经足够健康了，不再需要一份健康的饮食。
Let’s examine this assumption a little more in depth.The rate of membership at the local health club is little indication that NW will be “very successful” in Plainesville. It is possible that club members in thePlainesvillearea are nowhere near the anticipated site for the NW store. Perhaps the club’s primary appeal isn’t even health related. Maybe it is a social site attracting members only as a meeting place. Besides, the actual number of members was never mentioned. Even if the club’s members would patronize a NW store, these members might be insufficient in number to ensure a profit for the store.
【本段结构】
本段采用了标准的Argument正文段结构，即：概括第三个逻辑错误的错误类型和其在原文中出现的位置，接下来给出合理的理由和他因来反驳原文。
【本段功能】
本段作为正文第三段，攻击原文中出现的第三个重要逻辑错误——因果类错误。本段对上面提到的假设作进一步分析，并指出：当地健身俱乐部的会员数并不能预示NW将在Plainesville“非常成功”。例如，Plainesville地区的俱乐部会员可能离NW预期开店的地方很远，俱乐部的主要吸引力可能与健康无关，而只是一个为会员们提供集会地点的社交场所。另外，原文中也从未提及俱乐部会员的具体数目。即使俱乐部的会员们会光顾NW的商店，这些会员们在数量上也可能并不足以保证商店盈利。
Now, let’s attend the assumption that a mandatory fitness program inPlainesville’s schools somehow indicates that a franchise would be very successful there. Without a market analysis, we cannot determine the spending power of this demographic, nor can we determine their ability to affect overall household buying habits. Besides, mandatory participation is no indication of genuine interest in health, fitness or related products.
【本段结构】
本段采用了标准的Argument正文段结构，即：概括第四个逻辑错误的错误类型和其在原文中出现的位置，接下来给出合理的理由和他因来反驳原文。
【本段功能】
本段作为正文第四段，攻击原文中出现的第四个重要逻辑错误——因果类错误。原文假设在Plainesville的学校中开设的一个强制性的健康计划将以某种方式预示着NW的商店将会非常成功。如果没有一个市场分析，我们不能确定该地区人们的购买力，也不能确定他们影响全部住户购买习惯的能力。另外，强制性的参与也并不能体现出对于健康或相关产品的真实兴趣。
In sum, the recommendation of the vice president relies on unproven assumptions, whichrender the argument unconvincing. To bolster argument and validate the recommendation, the vice president must provide clearerconnections between the argument and the assumptions upon which it is based.
【本段结构】
本段采用了标准的Argument结尾段结构，即C—S的结尾结构。段落首先再次重申原文站不住脚的Conclusion，接下来给出可以增强原文说服力的合理的Suggestion，包括原文作者需要进一步提供的证据和信息等。
【本段功能】
本段作为Argument结尾段，具体功能即为总结归纳+提出建议。段落首先再次重申强调Argument作者的论证不合理，接下来给出合理的建议：副总裁必须对Argument和其所基于的Assumption之间提供更清晰的关联。
【满分要素剖析】
【语言表达】
本文的语言使用规范、清晰，词汇也用得准确地道，并使用多变的句式让考官读起来津津有味，这些都是
1) In this memo ... recommends ….(标志性的Argument开头段引出原文结论的语言表达形式。)To support this recommendation the vice president cites the following facts about …: (1) …; (2) …; and (3) ….(引出原文为支持其结论所引用的一系列的荒谬论据。)Close scrutiny illuminates the fact that the assumptions lend little credible support to the recommendation.(标志性的指出文章错误的语言表达。整体开头段是标准的C—A—F的语言和逻辑模版体系。)
2) Let’s first examine the assumptions that …, or even that …. Consider the possibility that …. Perhaps …. For that matter, perhaps …. In short, without a conclusive market analysis, the vice president fails to provide a link between …. Therefore, a conclusion based on this particular assumption,that …, is entirely undependable.(标志性的因果类错误的语言和逻辑模版体系。)
3) Next, let’s examine the assumption that …. The memo contains no evidence to support this assumption. Lacking such evidence, it is equally possible that …. In fact, perhaps ….(标志性的因果类错误的语言和逻辑模版体系。)
4) In sum, the recommendation of the vice president relies on unproven assumptions, which render the argument unconvincing. To bolster argument and validate the recommendation, the vice president must provide clearer connections between the argument and the assumptions upon which it is based.(标志性的Argument结尾段的Conclusion—Suggestion体系的语言和逻辑模版体系。)
【逻辑结构】
本文的写作体现出了非常严谨的开头段—正文段1、2、3、4—结尾段的逻辑体系：
(开头段)In this memo ... recommends ….
(正文段1)Let’s first examine the assumptions that …, or even that ….
(正文段2)Next, let’s examine the assumption that ….
(正文段3)Let’s examine this assumption a little more in depth.
(正文段4)Now, let’s attend the assumption that ….
(结尾段)In sum, the recommendation of the vice president relies on unproven assumptions, which render the argument unconvincing.
特别值得一提的是本文正文第一段的写作。该段首先通过Let’s first examine the assumptions that strong sales of exercise apparel indicated that Plainesville residents would be interested in NW’s products, or even that these residents are interested in exercising.一句说明原文中出现的因果类错误。接下来，该段使用Consider the possibility that exercise apparel could be in fashion.一句简短有力地过渡，并紧接着通过Perhaps exercise apparel is inexpensive compared to other types of clothing.和For that matter, perhaps the stronger-than-usual sales are due to increasing sales to tourists.两句递进地提出两种其它的可能解释。最后，该段In short, without a conclusive market analysis, the vice president fails to provide a link between the sales of exercise clothing and the projected sales revenue of a new franchise.Therefore, a conclusion based on this particular assumption, that Plainesville residents would be interested in health food based on the sales of a particular style of clothes, is entirely undependable.两句对原文中的错误作进一步深刻的分析，并对全段讨论进行总结，充分展现出了正文段严密的逻辑思路。