Arg-33
The following appeared in a memorandum from the planning department of an electric power company:
"Several recent surveys indicate that homeowners are increasingly eager to conserve energy and manufacturers are now marketing many home appliances, such as refrigerators and air conditioners that are almost twice as energy-efficient as those sold a decade ago. Also, new technologies for better home insulation and passive solar heating are readily available to reduce the energy needed for home heating. Therefore, we anticipate that the total demand for electricity in our area will not increase, and may decline slightly. Since our three electric generating plants in operation for the past 20 years have always met our needs, construction of new generating plants should not be necessary."
Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.
【满分范文赏析】
The author of this memo concludes that there is no need for an additional electric power plant in the area because total electricity demand in the area is not likely to increase in the future. To support this conclusion the author cites the availability of new energy-efficient appliances and systems for homes, and the eagerness of area homeowners to conserve energy. However, the argument relies on several questionable assumptions.
【本段结构】
本文采用了标准的Argument开头段结构，即C—A—F的开头结构。本段首先概括原文的Conclusion，之后简要提及原文为支持其结论所引用的一系列Assumption及细节，最后给出开头段到正文段的过渡句，指出原文的Flaw，即这些Assumption无法让原文逻辑上没有问题。
【本段功能】
作为Argument开头段，本段具体功能就在于发起攻击并概括原文的结论，即因为供电量会下降，没有必要新建额外的发电厂。本段接下来提到了原文中为支持之前的Conclusion所提供的证据，包括新型的节能家电用具以及当地人们想要节约能源的愿望。文章提及这些信息，为是在正文段中对这些Assumption即将进行的具体攻击做铺垫。
First, the author's projection for flat or declining total demand for electricity ignores business and commercial electricity usage. It is entirely possible that area businesses will increase their use of electricity in the future and that total electricity consumption will actually increase despite flat or declining residential demand. The author's projection also ignores the possibility that the number of area residents will increase in the future, thereby resulting in an increase in electricity usage regardless of whether more efficient appliances are used in area homes. Without taking these possibilities into account the recommendation above is incomplete.
【本段结构】
本段采用了标准的Argument正文段结构，即先是提及原文的第一个逻辑错误，之后分析该逻辑错误的原因，接下来，进一步分析这样的错误为什么让原文的Conclusion不成立。
【本段功能】
作为正文第一段，本段攻击原文所犯的第一个重要逻辑错误——因果类错误。原文当中假设当地居民用电量的下降会导致整体上的用电需求量下降，但是这一假设忽视了和用电量相关的其它作用因素，比如商业用电量和当地居民人口。因此在没有考虑这些因素的情况下，原文当中的这个观点是不合理的。
Secondly, the author's conclusion relies on the assumption that area residents have the capability and will purchase the energy-saving appliances and systems that are currently available. Admittedly, the author points out homeowners are "eager to conserve energy." Nevertheless, these homeowners might not be able to afford these new systems and appliances. Moreover, the energy-efficient insulation that the author mentions might only be available for new home construction. In that case, the mere availability of this system will have no effect on total electric usage in existing homes.
【本段结构】
本段采用了标准的Argument正文段结构，即先是提及原文的第二个逻辑错误，之后分析该逻辑错误的原因，接下来，进一步分析这样的错误为什么让原文的Conclusion不成立。
【本段功能】
作为正文第二段，本段攻击原文所犯的第二个重要逻辑错误——因果类错误。原文假设因为新型家用电器的存在，用电量会下降。但是仍旧存在其他因素会对这一预期的结果产生影响。在没有考虑到这些因素的情况下，原文的这个观点是没有说服力的。
A final problem involves the assertion that no new electric power plants are needed because the three existing plants, which are 20 years old, have always been adequate for the area's electric needs. The author fails to account for the possibility that the old plants are themselves less energy efficient than a new plant using new technology would be, or that the old plants need to be replaced due to their age, or for some other reason. Besides, this assertion ignores the possible influx of residents or businesses in the future, thereby increasing the demand for electricity beyond what the three existing plants can meet.
【本段结构】
本段采用了标准的Argument正文段结构，即先是提及原文的第三个逻辑错误，之后分析该逻辑错误的原因，接下来，进一步分析这样的错误为什么让原文的Conclusion不成立。
【本段功能】
作为正文第三段，本段攻击原文所犯的第三个重要逻辑错误——因果类错误。原文假设既然用电量会下降，那么发电厂设备就不需要更新换代。但是，除此之外还包括其他相关因素会导致不同的结果，比如发电厂的工作效率问题。在没有考虑到这些因素的情况下，原文的这个假设不是合理的。
In conclusion, the argument is unconvincing. To strengthen it the author must show that area residents can afford the new energy-efficient appliances and systems, and that they will buy them to reduce their demand for electricity. Also, the author must show that the area commercial demand for electricity will not increase significantly in the foreseeable future due to increased business development. Finally, the audience would need to be provided with a report on the projected output of the three current electric power plants.
【本段结构】
本段采用了标准的Argument结尾段结构，即C—S的结尾结构。首先再次重申原文Conclusion是站不住脚的，接下来给出可以增强原文说服力的合理的Suggestion，包括原文作者需要进一步提供的证据和细节信息等。
【本段功能】
本段作为结尾段，具体功能即为总结归纳+提出建议。段落首先再次重申强调原文作者的论证不合理，接下来给出合理的建议：作者必须证明当地的居民能够买得起新型的节能电器，当地的包含居住用电以外的用电量不会上升，以及关于当地现存的发电设备的发电情况。
【满分要素剖析】
【语言表达】
本文的语言使用规范、清晰，词汇也用得准确地道，并使用多变的句式让考官读起来津津有味，这些都是
1) The author of this memo concludes that…(标志性的Argument开头段引出原文结论的语言表达形式。)To support this conclusion the author cites… However, the argument relies on several questionable assumptions.(标志性的指出文章错误的语言表达。整体开头段是标准的C—A—F的语言和逻辑模版体系。)
2) First, the author's projection for… ignores… It is entirely possible that… The author's projection also ignores the possibility that… thereby resulting in… Without taking these possibilities into account the recommendation above is incomplete.(标志性的存在他因短导致因果类错误的语言和逻辑模版体系。)
3) Secondly, the author's conclusion relies on the assumption that... Admittedly, the author points out… Nevertheless… In that case…(标志性的存在他因短导致因果类错误的语言和逻辑模版体系。)
4) In conclusion, the argument is unconvincing. To strengthen it the author must show that… Also, the author must show that… Finally, the audience would need to be provided with…(标志性的Argument结尾段Conclusion-Suggestion体系的语言和逻辑模版体系。)
【逻辑结构】
本文的写作体现出了非常严谨的开头段—正文段1、2、3—结尾段的逻辑体系：
(开头段)The author of this memo concludes that…
(正文段1)First, the author's projection for… It is entirely possible that…
(正文段2)Secondly, the author's conclusion relies on the assumption that…
(正文段3)A final problem involves… The author fails to account for…
(结尾段)In conclusion, the argument is unconvincing. To strengthen it the author must…