Arg-17
The following appeared in a memorandum from the manager of WWAC radio station:
"To reverse a decline in listener numbers, our owners have decided that WWAC must change from its current rock-music format. The decline has occurred despite population growth in our listening area, but that growth has resulted mainly from people moving here after their retirement. We must make listeners of these new residents. We could switch to a music format tailored to their tastes, but a continuing decline in local sales of recorded music suggests limited interest in music. Instead we should change to a news and talk format, a form of radio that is increasingly popular in our area."
Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.
【满分范文赏析】
This memo recommends that WWAC radio station shift from rock-and-roll (R&R) music programming to news and talk programming. To support this recommendation the manager indicates that the number of WWAC listeners is decreasing while the number of older people in WWAC's listening area is increasing. The manager also points out that area sales of music recordings are in decline. Finally, the manager cites the success of news stations in nearby cities. Careful scrutiny of the manager's argument reveals several unproven assumptions, which render the argument unconvincing.
【本段结构】
本文采用了标准的Argument开头段结构，即C—A—F的开头结构。本段首先概括原文的Conclusion，之后简要提及原文为支持其结论所引用的一系列Assumption及细节，最后给出开头段到正文段的过渡句，指出原文的Flaw，即这些Assumption无法让原文逻辑上没有问题。
【本段功能】
作为Argument开头段，本段具体功能就在于发起攻击并概括原文的结论，即WWAC广播台应当把当下的摇滚音乐节目更换为新闻访谈节目。本段接下来提到了原文中为支持之前的Conclusion所提供的证据，包括WWAC的听众正在下降然而WWAC广播地区的老年人的数量正在上升，这些地区音乐唱片的数量也在下降，以及邻近地区另外一家广播台的成功案例。文章提及这些信息，为是在正文段中对这些Assumption即将进行的具体攻击做铺垫。
First, the manager assumes that the decline in the number of WWAC listeners is attributable to the station's current format. Perhaps the decline is due instead to WWAC's specific mix of R&R music, or to transmission problems at the station. Without ruling out these and other possible reasons for the decline, the manager cannot convince an audience that changing the format would reverse the trend.
【本段结构】
本段采用了标准的Argument正文段结构，即先是提及原文的第一个逻辑错误，之后分析该逻辑错误的原因，接下来，进一步分析这样的错误为什么让原文的Conclusion不成立。
【本段功能】
作为正文第一段，本段攻击原文所犯的第一个重要逻辑错误——因果类错误。原文当中假设广播地区的人数下降导致了WWAC听众下降的Assumption是不成立的，因为可能存在其他原因。因此在没有考虑这些因素的情况下，原文当中的这个观点是不合理的。
Secondly, the manager's assumption that older people favor all-news programming is unsubstantiated. Perhaps WWAC listeners are dedicated R&R fans who will continue to prefer this type of programming as they grow older. Or perhaps as WWAC's regular audience ages, they will prefer a mix of R&R and news programming rather than one format to the total exclusion of the other. Besides, the number of young people in the listening area might be increasing as well. In short, the mere fact that the number of older people in WWAC's listening area is increasing suggests nothing about WWAC's best programming strategy.
【本段结构】
本段采用了标准的Argument正文段结构，即先是提及原文的第二个逻辑错误，之后分析该逻辑错误的原因，接下来，进一步分析这样的错误为什么让原文的Conclusion不成立。
【本段功能】
作为正文第二段，本段攻击原文所犯的第二个重要逻辑错误——因果类错误。原文假设老年人并不会喜欢在广播电视台收听摇滚音乐，但有可能实际情况是恰恰相反的，因为人们爱听摇滚乐，即便岁数增大也会收听。或者另外一种情况，老年人数上升并不意味着摇滚音乐就没有了听众。在没有考虑到这些因素的情况下，原文的这个观点是没有说服力的。
Thirdly, a decrease in local music recording sales is scant evidence that WWAC should eschew music in favor of an all-news format. Although overall music sales are in decline, perhaps sales of R&R recordings are actually increasing. For that matter, perhaps people who buy music recordings are generally not the same people who listen to music on the radio. Either scenario, if true, would seriously undermine the manager's contention that WWAC should discontinue R&R programming.
【本段结构】
本段采用了标准的Argument正文段结构，即先是提及原文的第三个逻辑错误，之后分析该逻辑错误的原因，接下来，进一步分析这样的错误为什么让原文的Conclusion不成立。
【本段功能】
作为正文第三段，本段攻击原文所犯的第三个重要逻辑错误——类比类错误。原文假设整体的音乐唱片销量下降能够说明摇滚乐的欢迎程度下降，即整体类推个体的假设。但实际上个体的情况可能并非如此，因此原文的这个观点是没有说服力的。
Finally, it is unwarranted to infer from the success of all-news stations in surrounding areas that WWAC will also succeed by duplicating the same format. Those stations might well owe their success to their powerful transmitters, popular newscasters, or other factors. Besides, the very success of these stations suggests that the area's radio listeners might favor those well-established news providers over the fledgling all-news WWAC.
【本段结构】
本段采用了标准的Argument正文段结构，即先是提及原文的第四个逻辑错误，之后分析该逻辑错误的原因，接下来，进一步分析这样的错误为什么让原文的Conclusion不成立。
【本段功能】
作为正文第四段，本段攻击原文所犯的第四个重要逻辑错误——类比类错误。原文假设邻近地区某广播台的成功模式可以应用到WWAC广播台。但实际上这个广播台成功的原因并非是WWAC能够做到的，也就是这种类比并不能成立。所以，原文的这个观点是没有依据的。
In sum, the evidence accomplishes little toward supporting the manager's argument for the proposed format shift. To further bolster the argument the manager must provide better evidence, perhaps by way of a reliable survey, that people within WWAC's listening area are becoming more interested in news and less interested in R&R music (or any other genre). The manager must also demonstrate that an all-news format would be more popular than a mixed format of music and news, and that a significant number of people would prefer WWAC's all-news programming to that of other stations in the listening area.
【本段结构】
本段采用了标准的Argument结尾段结构，即C—S的结尾结构。首先再次重申原文Conclusion是站不住脚的，接下来给出可以增强原文说服力的合理的Suggestion，包括原文作者需要进一步提供的证据和细节信息等。
【本段功能】
本段作为结尾段，具体功能即为总结归纳+提出建议。段落首先再次重申强调原文作者的论证不合理，接下来给出合理的建议：广播台的经理应当采用客观的调查来说明当地广播听众的喜好是否有改变，以及证明如果都变成新闻访谈类节目，这能否迎合人们的口味。此外，不难发现，结尾段总结提出的建议与正文各段中依次攻击的错误遥相呼应，即分别对应了因果类错误和类比类错误，这使全篇文章显得浑然一体。
【满分要素剖析】
【语言表达】
本文的语言使用规范、清晰，词汇也用得准确地道，并使用多变的句式让考官读起来津津有味，这些都是
1) This memo recommends that… (标志性的Argument开头段引出原文结论的语言表达形式。)To support this recommendation the manager indicates that… Finally, the manager cites the… Careful scrutiny of the manager's argument reveals several unproven assumptions, which render the argument unconvincing.(标志性的指出文章错误的语言表达。整体开头段是标准的C—A—F的语言和逻辑模版体系。)
2) Secondly, the manager's assumption that… is unsubstantiated. Perhaps… Or perhaps… In short, the mere fact that… suggests nothing about WWAC's best programming strategy.(标志性的存在他因短导致因果类错误的语言和逻辑模版体系。)
3) Thirdly… Although overall music sales are in decline, perhaps sales of R&R recordings are actually increasing… Either scenario, if true, would seriously undermine the manager's contention that…(标志性的由整体类推个体的类比类错误的语言和逻辑模版体系。)
4) Finally, it is unwarranted to infer from the success of all-news stations in surrounding areas that WWAC will also succeed by duplicating the same format. Those stations might well owe their success to… Besides, the very success of these stations suggests that…(标志性的参照其它案例的类比类错误的语言和逻辑模版体系。)
5) In sum, the evidence accomplishes little toward supporting the manager's argument for… To further bolster the argument the manager must provide better evidence, perhaps by… The manager must also demonstrate that…(标志性的Argument结尾段Conclusion-Suggestion体系的语言和逻辑模版体系。)
【逻辑结构】
本文的写作体现出了非常严谨的开头段—正文段1、2、3、4—结尾段的逻辑体系：
(开头段)This memo recommends that…
(正文段1)First, the manager assumes that…
(正文段2)Secondly, the manager's assumption that… is unsubstantiated.
(正文段3)Thirdly…
(正文段4)Finally, it is unwarranted to infer from…
(结尾段)In sum, the evidence accomplishes little toward supporting the manager's argument for…
特别注意的是，本文的第二和第三段段攻击的是因果类错误，而第四段和第五段攻击的都是原文当中的类比类逻辑错误。这样的写法，能够清晰的体现这篇文章对于逻辑错误的攻击顺序是非常清晰的：即先攻击第一类的因果类错误，接着攻击第二大类的样本类错误，并对原文中的样本类错误进行了拆分，即分别分析由整体类推个体的类比类错误和参照其它案例的类比类错误。