题目
The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice for a client.”
Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil."
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
题目翻译
以下是一家提供投资建议的公司写给一位客户的信：
“在美国东北部，冬天通常会很冷，大多数在那里的家庭有将燃油作为主要供暖能源的传统。上一个供暖季节，那个地区有九十天的温度低于平均水平，气候预报员预测，未来几年内的气候类型都会是这样。而且，最近的人口增长导致许多新家庭在这个地区落户。由于上述趋势，我们估计取暖油的需求将会增加，推荐您投资Consolidated Industries，其主营项目之一是家用燃料油的零售。”
说明：写一篇文章，检查论证过程中陈述和/或未陈述的假设。一定要解释论证过程是如何依赖这些假设建立的，如果这些假设被证明是不合理的，对于论证过程来说有哪些潜在影响。
题目分析
A. 前提：we predict an increased demand for heating oil
我们估计取暖油的需求将会增加
B. 结论：we recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil
我们推荐您投资Consolidated Industries，其主营项目之一是家用燃料油的零售
C. 论据：
1. most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating
在美国东北部，冬天通常会很冷，大多数在那里的家庭有将燃油作为主要供暖能源的传统
2. last heating season that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures
上一个供暖季节，那个地区有九十天的温度低于平均水平
3. climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years
气候预报员预测，未来几年内的气候类型都会是这样
4. many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth
最近的人口增长导致许多新家庭在这个地区落户
提纲(可攻击点)
1、新落户在该地的家庭是否会根据当地传统适用燃油来取暖?
New inhabitants, who have moved there, will not necessarily use the same source as the local residents. If some of them have been accustomed to electric heating, and they have not used oil for heating before, they probably would not choose oil.
And we do not know the detail number of the new residents, if there have 200,000 native residents, and the number of new inhabitants is just 500, thus the new inhabitants are relatively less and they will make little effect on oil consumption.
2、除了天气变冷，还有哪些其他因素影响着当地家庭对燃料油的需求?
The cold weather is not the only factor, influencing the need for oil in the local, but a crucial factor. There is a combination of factors, such as the price of oil, the income of a family, the consumption of other sources for heating.
If the price of oil is increasing with the decreasing temperature, many families with finite incomes will limit their consumption of oil.
Although the oil is the traditional heating source, it cannot illustrate all the local residents only use it for heating. With the generalization of natural gas, part of the residents may also use natural gas.
Therefore, even if the weather is getting colder, it is not necessary to boost the total consumption of oil.
3、当地家庭储备燃料油是否主要通过零售购买?还有哪些其他方式?
The local residents reserve heating oil by many ways, besides the retail.
The wholesale is a general way to purchase the oil, because the price is lower than the retail.
4、当地人是否一定会购买Consolidated Industries的家用燃料油?题目忽视了哪些(比如：市场竞争等)关键信息?
The firm has ignored/overlooked the market competition. There is not only Consolidated Industries, who selling home heating oil. Many other strong peer companies would offer more alluring condition and price to attract the residents to buy their oil.
So even if the residents buy oil, they would not necessarily choose Consolidated.