The following appeared in a memo from the marketing director of Top Dog Pet Stores.
"Five years ago Fish Emporium started advertising in the magazine Exotic Pets Monthly. Their stores saw sales increase by 15 percent after their ads began appearing in the magazine. The three Fish Emporium stores in Gulf City saw an even greater increase than that. Because Top Dog Pet Stores is based in Gulf City, it seems clear that we should start placing our own ads in Exotic Pets Monthly. If we do so, we will be sure to reverse the recent trend of declining sales and start making a profit again."
下面这段文字节选自Top Dog Pet Stores市场总监的备忘录。
五年前Fish Emporium开始在Exotic Pets Monthly做广告。自从他们的广告出现在杂志上，他们的销售额增加了15%。在Gulf City的三家Fish Emporium店销售额增长的更多。由于Top Dog Pet Stores坐落在Gulf City，很明显我们应该开始在Exotic Pets Monthly做广告。如果我们这样做，我们将会扭转近来销量下降的趋势并且重新开始盈利。
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
158. The following appeared in a memo from the marketing director of Top Dog Pet Stores.
"Five years ago, Fish Emporium started advertising in the magazine Exotic Pets Monthly. Their stores saw sales increase by 15 percent. The three Fish Emporium stores in Gulf City saw an even greater increase than that. Because Top Dog has some of its largest stores in Gulf City, it seems clear that we should start placing our own ads in Exotic Pets Monthly. If we do so, we will be sure to reverse the recent trend of declining sales and start making a profit again."
下面这段文字节选自Top Dog Pet Stores市场总监的备忘录。
五年前Fish Emporium开始在Exotic Pets Monthly做广告。自从他们的广告出现在杂志上，他们的销售额增加了15%。在Gulf City的三家Fish Emporium店销售额增长的更多。由于Top Dog Pet Stores坐落在Gulf City，很明显我们应该开始在Exotic Pets Monthly做广告。如果我们这样做，我们将会扭转近来销量下降的趋势并且重新开始盈利。
Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.
159. The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.
"The population on Balmer Island increases to 100,000 during the summer months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island plans to limit the number of mopeds rented by each of the island's six moped rental companies from 50 per day to 30 per day during the summer season. Last year, the neighboring island of Torseau enforced similar limits on moped rentals and saw a 50 percent reduction in moped accidents. We predict that putting these limits into effect on Balmer Island will result in the same reduction in moped accidents."
下面这段文字出自写给Balmer Island Gazette杂志社编辑的一封信。
Balmer Island的人口在夏季达到了100000。为减少由机动脚踏车和行人引发的事故，Balmer Island市委打算本岛六个机动脚踏车出租公司的机动脚踏车的出租数量在夏季从每天50辆限制到每天30辆。去年，邻岛Torseau市对机动脚踏车出租量采取了类似的限制，脚踏车事故较少了60%。我们相信通过采取这些限制，
Balmer Island将会同样减少脚踏车事故。
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.