GRE-Argu-11
The council of Maple County, concerned about the county's becoming overdeveloped, is debating a proposed measure that would prevent the development of existing farmland in the county. But the council is also concerned that such a restriction, by limiting the supply of new housing, could lead to significant increases in the price of housing in the county. Proponents of the measure note that Chestnut County established a similar measure ten years ago, and its housing prices have increased only modestly since. However, opponents of the measure note that Pine County adopted restrictions on the development of new residential housing fifteen years ago, and its housing prices have since more than doubled. The council currently predicts that the proposed measure, if passed, will result in a significant increase in housing prices in Maple County.
1. 题目翻译
M郡议会十分担心M郡过度开发，正在讨论一项阻止开发本郡现有耕地的提议。但议会当局也同样担心这样通过限制新房供地的举措导致M的房价大幅上涨。提议的赞成者们指出C郡十年前实行了类似的举措，房价在那之后涨幅适中。然而提议的反对者们认为P郡十五年前对新住宅的建设发展进行了限制，那里的房价随后翻倍。M郡议会预计如果提议通过，M郡的房价会大幅上涨。
2. 本题逻辑错误分析
a) C地十年来房价的稳定，不能证明限房令不会带来C地的房价升高。也许C地同时出台了一项使房价下降的措施，才使房价稳定下来;或是C地的人口数量和结构发生大量的变化，使房价没有发生大的波动。即使限房令不会带来C地的房价升高，也无法证明相似的限价措施不能带来M地房价的稳定。也许C地房屋不够紧俏，而M地的房屋则十分抢手，限量后会引起房价大幅攀升。因此，需要先搞清楚限价令如何地影响了C地的房价，与C地和M地房屋消费结构与基础的异同。
b) P地房价的升高未必是由限房令引起的。也许是P地十五年来人口大量增长;或是经济飞速发展;或是成为了炙手可热的旅游景点等，都可能是房价升高。即使P地房价的升高是由限房令引起的，也不能证明相似的措施会引起现在的M地的房价升高。也许M地地广人稀，房子数量很多;或是M地居民消费能力有限，该措施影响不大。因此，需要先搞清楚限价令如何地影响了P地的房价，与P地和M地房屋消费结构与基础的异同。
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