TPO是美国教育考试服务中心(ETS)专为参加
In twenty years there will be fewer cars in use than there are today.
1. At first I would say I disagree with the statement according to which the use of cars would decrease in the following twenty years. Indeed, the world’s population is expected to grow drastically in the next decades. Population in Western countries is likely to grow at the same pace it is growing today, but the most important contribution to the global population growth will certainly come from developing countries. And to my opinion, a growth in the use of cars will accompany this growth in population. People in developed countries are largely accustomed to using cars, therefore a great change in habits would be needed to curb the growth in cars’ use. Moreover, studies show that people live further and further from their work place, and therefore have to use their car more often. As for developing countries, a rapid economic growth is expected to go along with population growth in a good deal of countries. These countries are likely to reach the development level of Western countries within the next couple of decades. Unless these countries can develop their own pattern, which I doubt, they will use more and more cars.
Nevertheless, some hope remains that the growth in the use of cars can be slowed in the future. People and governments are becoming more and more aware of environmental issues linked to the use of cars, and some experiments aiming at reducing it have been conducted in some places (e.g. the toll in the London downtown, or the alternate circulation in Paris on high pollution rate days). Although these measures certainly have a positive effect on pollution and traffic. I don’t think they’re viable in the long run. To curb environmental problems linked to cars, the only solution is to develop new clean technologies. This way pollution rates would drop, but we would still use more and more cars. So as for traffic In big cities In twenty years.. I’m very pessimistic!
2. These days almost everyone either owns a car or aspires to one and until credible alternatives are found the next generation will be no different. With few such alternatives on the horizon and as the need to travel grows, I would expect car numbers to rise and, thus, concur with the statement.
Governments would need to act now in order to present meaningful alternatives to private vehicles in a twenty-year time-frame such as convenient and comfortable public transport and thus reduce the demand for cars. However, to my knowledge, there seems to be no country which is pursuing the necessary revolutionary changes to public transportation to entice people out of their cars. From my experience, innovation is currently directed towards cleaner, fuel efficient cars such as electric vehicles, more roads and bridges and increased driver/passenger comfort. I have yet to see any competitive multi-passenger options, except for increased subway builds in major cities, which could alleviate the traffic jams and road use enough to reverse the trend.
Meanwhile, our lifestyles continue to evolve requiring longer daily work commutes, shopping expeditions as well as more frequent and more distant vacations. As urbanization continues in many cities around the world, town planning for ever larger cities necessitates many people having to live in the suburbs and commute relatively long distances to work, schools and shops on a daily basis. Although more could be done to encourage the use of walking or cycling short distances within our neighborhoods, the incentives to leave our cars in favor of public transport over longer distances is still not attainable in the foreseeable future. In return for our busier lifestyles, we tend to balance this stress with more and more leisure travel. Since these trends have been in place for several generations, it is unlikely that they will revert any time soon.
In conclusion, until there are more time-efficient, cost-efficient and comfortable ways to travel, domestic cars will remain the best option. Furthermore, modern life calls for more commuting and greater wealth more long distance travel. As a result, in twenty years, car use will be more than today.
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