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The following appeared in a memo to the Saluda town council from the town’s business manager.
“Research indicates that those who exercise regularly are hospitalized less than half as often as those who don’t exercise. By providing a well-equipped gym for Saluda’s municipal employees, we should be able to reduce the cost of our group health insurance coverage by approximately 50% and thereby achieve a balanced town budget.”
Saluda镇的商业管理者给镇议会的备忘录：
研究显示有规律地锻炼的人生病的概率比不运动的人要小一半。通过给Saluda的市政雇员提供一个设备良好的体育馆，我们应该可以大约减少50%的健康保险支出并得到平衡的镇预算。
1. There is no causal relationship between the development of the employees' health and the provision of a well-equipped gym.
2. Therefore, the reduction of the cost of group health insurance coverage expected by the author is not guaranteed.
3. Even if the provision of the gym can cause a reduction of the cost, no one can rely on it to achieve a balanced town budget since the health incidents occur very randomly.
In this memo Saluda’s business manager recommends that the town provide a gym for its employees as a means of balancing the town’s budget. The manager reasons that since studies show that people who exercise regularly are hospitalized less than half as often than those who don’t exercise, Saluda could save approximately 50% on the cost of its group health insurance coverage by providing its employees with a well-equipped gym. The savings on insurance would balance the town’s budget. The manager’s argument is unconvincing because it rests on several unsupported and dubious assumptions.
First, the manager assumes that Saluda’s employees will exercise regularly if a well-equipped facility is provided for them. This assumption is questionable since the mere fact that a gym is made available for employee use is no guarantee that they will avail themselves of it at all, let alone on a regular basis.
Second, the manager assumes that Saluda’s employees do not exercise regularly. Once again, the manager offers no support for this crucial assumption. Obviously, if all of Sauda’s employees already engage in daily exercise, the hospitalization rate will be unaffected by equipping an exercise facility and no savings will be realized on the group health insurance.
Third, the manager assumes that there is a direct relation between the hospitalization rate for employees and the cost of their group health insurance such that a reduction in the hospitalization rate will result in a corresponding reduction in the cost of insurance. While this may turn out to be true, the manager has failed to offer any evidence for this claim.
Finally, the manager assumes that the cost of building a well-equipped exercise facility will not negate the savings realized on the group health insurance. Until evidence has been provided to show that this is not the case, the manager’s plan is unacceptable.
In conclusion, the business manager’s proposal to provide an exercise facility as a means of balancing Saluda’s budget is not convincing. To strengthen the argument, evidence would have to be provided for each of the assumptions listed in the previous analysis.
114. The following appeared in a memorandum from the director of research and development at Ready-to-Ware, a software engineering firm.
“The package of benefits and incentives that Ready-to-Ware offers to professional staff is too costly. Our quarterly profits have declined since the package was introduced two years ago, at the time of our incorporation. Moreover, the package had little positive effect, as we have had only marginal success in recruiting and training high-quality professional staff. To become more profitable again, Ready-to-Ware should, therefore, offer the reduced benefits package that was in place two years ago and use the savings to fund our current research and development initiatives.”
一家软件工程公司，Ready-to-Ware的研发经理的备忘录：
RW给专业人员的利益和激励机制太昂贵了。自从两年前我们组成公司时机制引入，我们的利润下降了1/4，而且，这个机制基本上没有效果，因为我们在招募和训练高水平专业人员方面只获得边际(marginal?)成功。为了再次得到更多的利润，RW应该提供两年前使用的较低的激励机制，并把节余用于研发的开展。
1， The causal relationship between the benefit package given to the professional staff and the decline of the profit is not guaranteed by the coincidence that the latter occured just after the latter. Other factors that may contribute to the decline in the profit should also be considered and ruled out.
2， Research and development is a time-consuming process. Two years is not a long enough period to see the result and positive effects.
3， Even if the package is really too high and caused the declne of profit, it is still imprudent to say that the reduced benefits package that was in place two years ago will definitely work.
1. 同时发生并不代表因果，忽略他因
2. 没有提供信息，不知道如果不提供这些会不会得到成功培训
3. 即使是省下钱，也不知是否科研，因为可能因为其他原因导致的利润下降。
In this memorandum the director of research and development of Ready-to-Ware recommends reducing the benefits package offered to employees as a means of increasing profits and funding current research and development initiatives. The director’s line of reasoning is that quarterly profits have declined because of the current benefits package and can be increased by reducing it. Moreover, the director argues that the benefits package had little effect in recruiting and training high-quality employees. The director’s argument is questionable for several reasons.
To begin with, the director’s reasoning is a classic instance of “after this, therefore because of this” reasoning. The only evidence put forward to support the claim that the introduction of the benefits package is responsible for the decline in quarterly profits is that the profits declined after the package was introduced. However, this evidence is insufficient to establish the causal claim in question. Many other factors could bring about the same result. For example, the company may have failed to keep pace with competitors in introducing new products or may have failed to satisfy its customers by providing adequate support services. Until these and other possible factors are ruled out, it is premature to conclude that the introduction of the benefits package was the cause of the decline in profits.
Next, the director assumes that the benefits package currently offered is responsible for the marginal success Ready-to-Ware has experienced in recruiting and training new high-quality professionals. However, no evidence is offered to support this allegation. Other reasons for Ready-to-Ware’s failure to attract high-quality professionals are not considered. For example, perhaps Ready-to-Ware is not a cutting edge company or is not regarded as a leader in its field. Until these and other possible explanations of the company’s marginal success at recruiting and training employees are examined and eliminated it is folly to conclude that the benefits package provided to the professional staff is responsible.
In conclusion, the director has failed to provide convincing reasons for reducing the benefits package Ready-to-Ware currently offers its professional staff. To further support the recommendation the director would have to examine and eliminate other possible reasons for the decline in Ready-to-Ware’s quarterly profits and for its lack of success in attracting high-quality professionals.