31. The following appeared as part of the business plan of an investment and financial consulting firm.
“Studies suggest that an average coffee drinker’s consumption of coffee increases with age, from age 10 through age 60. Even after age 60, coffee consumption remains high. The average cola drinker’s consumption of cola, however, declines with increasing age. Both of these trends have remained stable for the past 40 years. Given that the number of older adults will significantly increase as the population ages over the next 20 years, it follows that the demand for coffee will increase and the demand for cola will decrease during this period. We should, therefore, consider transferring our investments from Cola Loca to Early Bird Coffee.”
一家投资财经咨询公司的商务计划：
研究显示一个普通咖啡消费者的咖啡消耗从10到60岁随年龄增长，甚至在60岁以后，咖啡消费仍然保持很高。而一般的可乐消费者的可乐消费随年龄增加递减。在过去40年中这两个趋势都很稳定。由于在未来的20年内老年人口将显著增加，咖啡需求回增长而可乐需求会降低。因此，我们应该考虑将我们的投资从可口可乐转向雀巢咖啡。
1.all the things are equal 作者在得出这个推荐之前做了一个假设就是在未来的二十年中咖啡豆以及可乐的原料的相对价格不变.但这在这么长的一段时期是不可能的.很可能它们其中一种的原料相对于另外一种大幅度上升.由于相对成本的变化从而改变了相对价格也就改变了消费者的消费倾向.那么作者的建议就是完全靠不住的.
2.除了年龄因素很多其他的因素也会影响两种饮料的消费量例如某一代人可能在每个年龄段都比另一代人消费更多的可乐.除非作者排除这些其他因素,否则说理是gratuitous的
3.没有足够有力的证据表明该项研究结果就是可信的Finally, the firm unjustifiably relies on the studies that correlate coffee and cola consumption with age. The firm does not provide evidence to confirm the reliability of the studies.Moreover, while the phrase "studies suggest" may appear to lend credibility to these claims, the phrase is vague enough to actually render the claims worthless, in the absence of any information about them.
the author can not justify his recommendation ill-founded 无正当理由的
1， 老人数增加不能导致年轻人数减少。是错误的推测。同时，即使老人增加，那么增加的老人很可能不是coffee drinker。
2， 过去和未来不一样，未来可能两种成本变化，价格发生很大变化。
3， 该研究结果不一定可信!
In this argument a consulting firm recommends the transfer of investments from Cola Loca to Early Bird Coffee because, during the next 20 years, coffee demand will increase while cola demand will decrease. This prediction is based on the expectation that the number of older adults will significantly increase over the next 20 years, together with statistics, reportedly stable for the past 40 years, indicating that coffee consumption increases with age while cola consumption declines with increasing age. For three reasons, this financial advice may not be sound.
First, the argument assumes that relative supply conditions will remain unchanged over the next twenty years. However, the supply and cost of cola and coffee beans, as well as other costs of doing business as a producer of coffee or cola, may fluctuate greatly over a long time period. These factors may affect comparative prices of coffee and cola, which in turn may affect comparative demand and the value of investments in coffee and cola companies. Without considering other factors that contribute to the value of a coffee or cola company, the firm cannot justify its recommendation.
Secondly, the argument fails to account for the timing of the increase in coffee consumption. Perhaps the population will age dramatically during the next five years, then remain relatively flat over the following 15 years. Or perhaps most of the increase in average age will occur toward the end of the 20-year period. An investor has more opportunity to profit over the short and long term in the first scenario than in the second, assuming the investor can switch investments along the way. If the second scenario reflects the facts, the firm’s recommendation would be ill-founded.
Finally, the firm unjustifiably relies on the studies that correlate coffee and cola consumption with age. The firm does not provide evidence to confirm the reliability of the studies. Moreover, while the phrase “studies suggest” may appear to lend credibility to these claims, the phrase is vague enough to actually render the claims worthless, in the absence of any information about them.
In conclusion, the firm should not transfer investments from Cola Loca to Early Bird Coffee on the basis of this argument. To better evaluate the recommendation, we would need more information about the study upon which it relies. We would also need more detailed projections of population trends during the next 20 years.