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The following appeared as part of an article in the education section of a Waymarsh City newspaper.
“Throughout the last two decades, those who earned graduate degrees found it very difficult to get jobs teaching their academic specialties at the college level. Those with graduate degrees from Waymarsh University had an especially hard time finding such jobs. But better times are coming in the next decade for all academic job seekers, including those from Waymarsh. Demographic trends indicate that an increasing number of people will be reaching college age over the next ten years; consequently, we can expect that the job market will improve dramatically for people seeking college-level teaching positions in their fields.”
Waymarsh城日报教育版的一篇文章：
过去的20年内，研究生毕业生发现找到在大学教授他们的学术专长的工作是很困难的。那些从Waymarsh获得研究生学位的要找到这类工作尤其困难。但在下个10年，寻找学术工作的人(包括那些Waymarsh大学的)的好日子要来了。人口统计趋势显示达到上大学年龄的人将在未来10年增加。我们可预期对那些在他们的领域寻找大学教学工作的人来说，工作市场将显著增大。
1. 适龄人口增加不一定上大学人数就一定增加
2. 就算上大学人数增加需要的大学老师也不一定增加
3. 就算需要的老师增加,waymarsh的就业也不见得会水涨船高.
1， 人口增加也不一定都上大学。很可能都选择了就业。
2， even if we grant the preceding assumption上大学的人多了不一定需要更多老师，很可能大学通过增大一个班人数的方式，保持原有老师数;
3， 就算需要GRADUATED DE
Demographic trends that indicate an increase in the number of college-aged people over the next ten years lead the author to predict an improved job market for all people seeking college-level teaching positions in their academic disciplines. Moreover, the author argues that since Waymarsh University students with advanced degrees had an especially difficult time finding teaching jobs in the past, these trends portend better times ahead for Waymarsh graduates. This argument is problematic in three important respects.
First, the author assumes that an increase in the number of college-aged people over the next decade will necessarily result in an increase in the number of people who attend college during this period. While this is a reasonable assumption, it is by no means a certainty. For example, a world war or economic depression in the next decade would certainly nullify this expectation.
Second, even if we grant the preceding assumption, we must also consider the additional assumption that increased university enrollments will lead to an increase in teaching positions in all fields. However, it might turn out that some teaching specialties are in greater demand than others in the future, resulting in a disproportionate number of teaching positions available in various fields. Consequently, persons trained in some fields might find it more difficult, if not impossible, to find teaching jobs in the future.
Finally, little can be foretold regarding the employability of Waymarsh graduates in the future based on the information provided in the argument. Lacking information about the reasons why Waymarsh graduates had an especially difficult time finding teaching jobs, it is difficult to assess their prospects for the future. It is probable, however, that since Waymarsh has had an especially hard time placing graduates in the past, the mere fact that more jobs are available will not, by itself, ensure that Waymarsh graduates will have an easier time finding teaching jobs during the next decade.
In conclusion, this argument is unconvincing. To strengthen the argument, the author must provide evidence that the only major trend in the next decade will be an increase in the number of people reaching college age. Regarding the future prospects for Waymarsh graduates, the author must provide evidence that there were no idiosyncratic reasons that prevented them from finding jobs in the past.
20. The following appeared in an article in a health and fitness magazine.
“Laboratory studies show that Saluda Natural Spring Water contains several of the minerals necessary for good health and that it is completely free of bacteria. Residents of Saluda, the small town where the water is bottled, are hospitalized less frequently than the national average. Even though Saluda Natural Spring Water may seem expensive, drinking it instead of tap water is a wise investment in good health.”
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
关于健康和舒适的杂志上的文章：
实验室的研究显示Saluda自然泉水包含有益健康的几种矿物质且完全无菌。灌装此水的小镇Saluda的居民比平均水平的就医率要低，虽然saluda自然泉水可能看起来很贵，喝它而非自来水是一项对健康的明智投资。
1. 小镇居民就医率低可能还有很多其他的因素如：健康的生活方式，自然环境优越，饮食结构科学。
2. 该矿泉水所含的矿物质是否有别与普通的自来水作者并没有给出支撑的论据.而且单纯这几种矿物质不一定能满足人体需要.
3. 完全无菌并不一定对人体十分有好处,水体里的一些细菌是有益的.此外喝这种矿泉水显然不是摄取无菌水 的唯一途径,相比起来一种比较廉价的方式就是把水烧开.
Sample essay 1:
The argument that drinking Saluda Natural Spring Water instead of tap water is a wise investment in good health is not entirely logically convincing, since it lacks certain supporting factors.
Firstly, the argument assumes that Saluda Natural Spring Water is the major reason why residents of Saluda are less frequently hospitalized than the national average. However, there is little evidence that this water is the only difference between this place and the rest of the country. And the reason why people in other places are more hospitalized are numerous and varied. There are so many other factors that would bring people in other places to hospitals, such as accidents, food contamination, illnesses, etc.
Secondly, the argument also assumes that the minerals in Saluda National Spring Water are the key minerals for the good health of the residents of Saluda. However, this may not be true. We need not only minerals to keep good heath but also various vitamins. Besides, our body needs more minerals than those contained in Saluda Natural Spring Water.
Finally, even if the Saluda water is the major reason why the residents of Saluda are less hospitalized, the argument still omits the fact that there is more than one way to keep drinking water free from bacteria. For instance, the most common practice is to boil water up to 100 degree Celsius and keep it at that degree for more than 5 minutes. Therefore drinking Saluda water to keep good health is not the only alternative.
Thus, the argument is not completely sound. The evidence in support of the conclusion that the Saluda residents are less hospitalized does little to prove the conclusion that drinking Saluda Natural Spring Water is a wise investment in good health since it omits the assumptions I have just raised. The argument might have been strengthened by making it plain that Saluda Natural Spring Water is the major reason why the residents of Saluda are less hospitalized, that the water contains all the major minerals essential for the human body, and that there is no other way to keep water from bacteria.
Sample essay 2:
In this argument the author concludes that drinking Saluda Natural Spring Water (SNSW) is preferable to drinking tap water. Three reasons are offered in support of this conclusion: SNSW contains several of the minerals necessary for good health, it is completely tree of bacteria, and residents of Saluda—the town where it is bottled—are hospitalized less frequently than the national average. This argument is unconvincing because it relies on a variety of dubious assumptions.
The first questionable assumption underlying this argument that tap water does not contain the minerals in question and is not completely free of bacteria. This assumption is not supported in the argument. If tap water is found to contain the same minerals and to be free of bacteria, the author’s conclusion is substantially undermined.
A second assumption of the argument is that the water residents of Saluda drink is the same as SNSW. Lacking evidence to the contrary, it is possible that Saluda is not the source of the bottled water but is merely the place where SNSW is bottled. No evidence is offered in the argument to dispute this possibility.
Finally, it is assumed without argument that the reason residents are hospitalized less frequently than the national average is that they drink SNSW. Again, no evidence is offered to support this assumption. Perhaps the residents are hospitalized less frequently because they are younger than the national average, because they are all vegetarians, or because they exercise daily. That is, there might be other reasons than the one cited to account for this disparity.
In conclusion, this is an unconvincing argument. To strengthen the conclusion that SNSW is more healthful than tap water, the author must provide evidence that tap water contains harmful bacteria not found in SNSW. Moreover, the author must demonstrate that the residents of Saluda regularly drink the same water as SNSW and that this is why they are hospitalized less frequently than the national average.