131. The following appeared in a memorandum from the business planning department of Avia Airlines.
“Of all the cities in their region, Beaumont and Fletcher are showing the fastest growth in the number of new businesses. Therefore, Avia should establish a commuter route between them as a means of countering recent losses on its main passenger routes. And to make the commuter route more profitable from the outset, Avia should offer a 1/3 discount on tickets purchased within two days of the flight. Unlike tickets bought earlier, discount tickets will be nonrefundable, and so gain from their sale will be greater.”
1Fast growth of new businesses does not mean the number of the commuters between the two cities is also great.
2What is the cost of the commuter route. Whether it can stand such a reduction of ticket price.
3It is likely that the commuters will not increase the times they commute between the two cities only because the ticket price has been reduced.
132. The following appeared in a memorandum from the vice-president of Gigantis, a development company that builds and leases retail store facilities.
“Nationwide over the past five years, sales have increased significantly at outlet stores that deal exclusively in reduced-price merchandise. Therefore, we should publicize the new mall that we are building at Pleasantville as a central location for outlet shopping and rent store space only to outlet companies. By taking advantage of the success of outlet stores, this plan should help ensure full occupancy of the mall and enable us to recover quickly the costs of building the mall.”
1The author commits a fallacy of all things are equal.
2Even if the trend will continue for some time, rent store space only to outlet companies still goes to the extreme.
3Other factors should be considered. And it is too early to guarantee the success.
133. The following appeared in a memorandum written by the chair of the music department to the president of Omega University.
“Mental health experts have observed that symptoms of mental illness are less pronounced in many patients after group music-therapy sessions, and job openings in the music-therapy field have increased during the past year. Consequently, graduates from our degree program for music therapists should have no trouble finding good positions. To help improve the financial status of Omega University, we should therefore expand our music-therapy degree program by increasing its enrollment targets.”
1It is possible that the job market for music-therapists has already been saturated.
2Even if there is a demand for music-therapists, it is too imprudent to allege that the graduates of the music department of Omega University should have no trouble finding good positions.
3The author commits a fallacy of all things are equal.
4There some other considerations when concerning whether to expand the music-therapy degree program.
134. The following appeared in a memorandum to the work-group supervisors of the GBS Company.
“The CoffeeCart beverage and food service located in the lobby of our main office building is not earning enough in sales to cover its costs, and so the cart may discontinue operating at GBS. Given the low staff morale, as evidenced by the increase in the number of employees leaving the company, the loss of this service could present a problem, especially since the staff morale questionnaire showed widespread dissatisfaction with the snack machines. Therefore, supervisors should remind the employees in their group to patronize the cart — after all, it was leased for their convenience so that they would not have to walk over to the cafeteria on breaks.”
1The evidence provided is not sufficient for the conclusion that the morale is low.
2The CoffeeCart beverage and food service may deserve the loss since it can provide only very low quality beverage.
3It is absurd to remind the employees to patronize the cart. To do so will absolutely distort the original consideration to lease the cart.
135. The following appeared as part of an article in a trade magazine.
“During a recent trial period in which government inspections at selected meat-processing plants were more frequent, the amount of bacteria in samples of processed chicken decreased by 50 percent on average from the previous year’s level. These results indicate that the trial schedule should be made permanent: by continuing with more frequent inspections, the government could thus cut in half the incidence of stomach and intestinal infections throughout the country. In the meantime, consumers of Excel Meats should be safe from infection because Excel’s main processing plant has shown more improvement in eliminating bacterial contamination than any other plant cited in the government report.”
1The author commits a fallacy of insufficient sample.
2Bacteria in the processed meat is not the only channel than can spread stomach an intestinal infections.
3It is too early to allege that consumers of Excel meats should be safe from infection.