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121. The following appeared as part of the business plan of the Capital Idea investment firm.
“Across town in the Park Hill district, the Thespian Theater, Pizzazz Pizza, and the Niblick Golf Club have all had business increases within the past two years. Capital Idea should therefore invest in the Roxy Playhouse, the Slice-o’-Pizza, and the Divot Golf Club, three new businesses in the Irongate district. As a condition, we should require them to participate in a special program: Any customer who patronizes two of the businesses will receive a substantial discount at the third. By motivating customers to patronize all three, we will thus contribute to the profitability of each and maximize our return.”
1The author commits a fallacy of false analogy.
2Therefore the proposal of investment in the Irongate district is groundless. No investment should be made until other factors have been considered and the benefit-cost analysis has been made.
3The program suggested by the author is reckless or even ridiculous. The possible result can be the opposite of the author's imagination because the consumers have interest of only one or two of the three stores.
1The business increases occurred in the past two years. No one can guarantee the future profit.
2The three new companies are not necessarily analogous to those profitable ones.
3The condition that is required is absurd. There is no causal relationship between the condition and the collective profit.
122. The following appeared as part of an article in a newsletter for farmers.
“Users of Solacium, a medicinal herb now grown mainly in Asia, report that it relieves tension and promotes deep sleep. A recent study indicates that a large number of college students who took pills containing one of the ingredients in Solacium suffered less anxiety. To satisfy the anticipated demands for this very promising therapeutic herb and to reap the financial benefits, farmers in this country should begin growing it.”
1It is possible that there are some other plants have the same effect to relieve tension and promote deep sleep , but are easier cultivated and gained compared with the mentioned herb.
2No evidence can serve as an evidence that the demands of this therapeutic herb is great. And it is too early to assert the financial benefits gained from growing it.
3The author commits a fallacy of false analogy. The plant that can be grown in Asia can die very easily in other regions.
123. The following appeared in a memorandum from the president of Aurora, a company that sells organic milk (milk produced without the use of chemical additives).
“Sales of organic food products in this country have tripled over the past five years. If Aurora is to profit from this continuing trend, we must diversify and start selling products such as organic orange juice and organic eggs in addition to our regular product line. With the recent increase of articles in health magazines questioning the safety of milk and other food products, customers are even more likely to buy our line of organic products. And to help ensure our successful expansion, we should hire the founder of a chain of health-food stores to serve as our vice-president of marketing.”
1The success of the profit gain in the sales of organic food products can not guarantee the same profit increase in the other organic products.
2The consumers can be affected by the magazines, but to what degree is not provided by the author.
3There is no causal relationship between the employment of the founder of a chain of health-food stores and the successful expansion.
124. The following appeared in a memorandum from the human resources department of Diversified Manufacturing.
“Managers at our central office report that their employees tend to be most productive in the days immediately before a vacation. To help counteract our declining market share, we could increase the productivity of our professional staff members, who receive a total of four weeks paid vacation a year, by allowing them to take no more than one week of vacation at a time. They will thus take more vacation breaks during a year and give us more days of maximum productivity, thereby helping to increase our market share.
1The author commits a fallacy of false analogy.
2Other factors that may contribute to the declining market share of Diversified Manufacturing other than the producitivity of the employers' productivity of the human resources department should be considered.
3The author ignore that when a person is looking forward to taking a vacation his or her productivity can be reduced thus offseting the higher productivity after the vacation.
125. The following appeared in a memorandum from a regional supervisor of post office operations.
“During a two-week study of postal operations, the Presto City post office handled about twice as many items as the Lento City post office, even though the cities are about the same size. Moreover, customer satisfaction appears to be higher in Presto City, since the study found fewer complaints regarding the Presto City post office. Therefore, the postmasters at these two offices should exchange assignments: the Presto City postmaster will solve the problems of inefficiency and customer dissatisfaction at the Lento City office while the Lento City postmaster learns firsthand the superior methods of Presto City.”
1Two-week is too short a period that is not long enough to draw conclusion about the operations and customer satisfication of the two post offices.
2Size is not the only factor to consider when judge the scale of the postal service of the two cities.
3The proposed appointments of the two postmasters can be harmful to the two post offices since they two are not familiar with the other city's situation.
126. The following appeared in a memorandum written by the managing director of the Exeunt Theater Company.
“Now that we have moved to a larger theater, we can expect to increase our revenues from ticket sales. To further increase profits, we should start producing the plays that have been most successful when they were performed in our nation’s largest cities. In addition, we should hire the Adlib Theater Company’s director of fund-raising, since corporate donations to Adlib have increased significantly over the three years that she has worked for Adlib.”
1The author commits a fallacy of false analogy.这个错误犯了两次哦一个是在大城市受欢迎的剧 不一定在这里也受欢迎此外那个director在别的地方成功换了地方不一定成功。
2The author commits a fallacy of all things are equal.
3Other factors other than the good performance of the Adlib Theater Company's director of fund-raising should be considered.
127. The following appeared in a memorandum from the human resources department of HomeStyle, a house remodeling business.
“This year, despite HomeStyle’s move to new office space, we have seen a decline in both company morale and productivity, and a corresponding increase in administrative costs. To rectify these problems, we should begin using a newly developed software package for performance appraisal and feedback. Managers will save time by simply choosing comments from a preexisting list; then the software will automatically generate feedback for the employee. The Human Resources department at CounterBalance, the manufacturer of the countertops we install, reports satisfaction with the package.”
1The decline of the morale and productivity can simply be the result of the move, thus making the proposal to use a newly developed software package useless.
2The software package seems not able to solve new problems out of the preexisting list.
3The manufacturer will apparently report satisfaction with its own products.
4The author commits a fallacy of false analogy.
128. The following appeared as part of an article in a weekly newsmagazine.
“The country of Oleum can best solve the problem of its balance of trade deficit by further increasing the tax on its major import, crude oil. After Oleum increased the tax on imported crude oil four months ago, consumption of gasoline declined by 20 percent. Therefore, by imposing a second and significantly higher tax increase next year, Oleum will dramatically decrease its balance of trade deficit.”
1The author commits a fallcay of all things are equal.
2Other factors such as other countries' feedback should be considered.
3It is imprudent to say the best way to solve the problem is to further increase the tax on crude oil until other ways are considered.
129. The following appeared as part of a business plan by the Capital Idea investment firm.
“In recent years the worldwide demand for fish has grown, and improvements in fishing technology have made larger catches and thus increased supply possible: for example, last year’s tuna catch was 9 percent greater than the previous year’s. To capitalize on these trends, we should therefore invest in the new pugfish processing plant on Pugfish Island, where increasing revenues from tourism indicate a strong local economy.”
1The author commits a fallacy of all things are equal.
2Other factors such as environmental reservation should be considered.
3It is too reckless to allege that the investment firm will gain profit in the new pugfish processing plant only after some superficial analysis.
130. The following appeared in a speech by a stockholder of Consolidated Industries at the company’s annual stockholders’ meeting.
“In the computer hardware division last year, profits fell significantly below projections, the product line decreased from twenty to only five items, and expenditures for employee benefits increased by 15 percent. Nevertheless, Consolidated’s board of directors has approved an annual salary of over one million dollars for our company’s chief executive officer. The present board members should be replaced because they are unconcerned about the increasing costs of employee benefits and salaries, in spite of the company’s problems generating income.”
1Other factors that may contribute to the fall of profit should be considered.
2The salary of the CEO should be judged by the contribution they make to the companies. If they do a lot to help the company gain profit, they deserve the high salary.
3Therefore, it is too imprudent to replace the present board members.