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3、The following appeared in a memorandum from the business department of the Apogee Company:
“When the Apogee Company had all its operations in one location, it was more profitable than it is today. Therefore,
the Apogee Company should close down its field offices and conduct all its operations from a single location. Such
centralization would improve profitability by cutting costs and helping the company maintain better supervision of all
employees.”
Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.
逻辑漏洞:
1，all things are equal, the situation in the past may be different form that today. we must consider the outside environment. if the company keeps in one location today, il may be even less profitable.
2, gratuitous assumption, for Apogee Company, have its operations in one location do not necessarily lead to a cost cutting, for its field offices can offer a lot of convinience for the whole company. besides, have all its operations in one location may not be easy to supervise, for people from different offices may not get on well with each other, offices themselves may have a lot of confrontation if they are too close on affaires.
3, feasibility or lack of survey, to gather all its offices in one location may be impossible or even absurd. the price of relocation may be much more expensive than the margin of profits...
提纲:
一,总述
二, 错误一
三, 错误二
四, 另外,作者还忽视了很多东西,比如错误三...
五,总结,错误多.需要更多调查,排除时间外部环境影响;找到公司病因,并针对病因改进方法.
sample1-6分:
The author in this argument is trying to establish that Apogee Company should close down its field offices and conduct all its operations from a single location. This conclusion is based on the assertion that Apogee Company’s more profit in the past years was simply caused by operating in one location. To support this conclusion, the author reasons that such centralization would improve profitability by cutting costs. In addition, he assumes that centralization would help the company maintain better supervision of all employees. Closely examining the author’s logic and reasoning, we find that neither of these reasons provides sufficient support for the conclusion and this argument suffers two serious logical flaws.
First of all, this argument relies on a groundless assumption that the reason why Apogee Company is less profitable than before is because it was operated in multiple locations.
However, no evidence stated in the report supports this crucial assumption. There are many other factors that could have caused or contributed to the result that the Apogee Company is less profitable. It is possible that the competitors of Apogee Company are stronger than past; it is also possible that the slowdown of the overall economical environment have caused the less profitability on today than past. Any of these scenarios, if true, would show that Apogee Company’s poor financial performance is not due to the multi- location operation. Therefore, without ruling out other factors or presenting stronger evidence, the author cannot conclusively assert that Apogee should close down its field offices and conduct all its operations from a single location,
Second, the author commits the “after this and therefore because of this” fallacy where the author assumes that because the poor financial performance occurred after the Apogee Company conducted its operation from more than one location, the multi-location operation was responsible for the poor financial performance. The statistical relationship between the poor financial performance and multi-location operation can not necessarily establish the causality between Apogee Company’s poor financial performance and its multi location operation. In fact, the author obviously ignored the possibility of other alternative factors such as the price increase of raw materials, or the extra expense for the construction of new factory, which may contribute to the Apogee Company’s poor financial performance. It may be only a coincidence that the poor financial performance happened after Apogee Company moved from one location operation to multi-location operation. Unless the author can rule out other factors relevant to the relation between poor financial performance and multi- location operation, this assumption is in question and can not be accepted.
In conclusion, this argument is ineffective because the author commits the above mentioned logical mistakes. The author could strengthen the conclusion that Apogee Company should close its field offices and conducts all its operation in single location by demonstrating that the poor financial performance was a result of multi-location operation.
sample 2:
The author argues that Apogee Company improves profitability by closing down its field offices and conducting all its operations from a single location. To support this argument, the author states that such centralization would improve profitability by cutting costs and helping the company maintain better supervision of all employees. In addition, the author points out that Apogee Company enjoyed a more profitable business in the past when it had all its operations in one location. However, the author's argument is flawed in three aspects.
In the first place, the author regards a complicated managerial issue as a single-step change in operations and ignores many relevant factors. A company's profitability is determined by a whole bunch of economic, social, political, and cultural factors as well as management skills and employees' attitude. Luck also plays an important role. It can be reasonably assumed that Apogee Company is suffering a low profitability at present. The reasons can be many, so any single adjustment without considering other possible influential factors is incomplete, and any oversimplified conclusion is unfounded.
In the second place, it is dangerous for Apogee Company to cut costs deeper and supervise employees better by resorting to centralization. The company may lose its market share because it concentrates its entire resource in one single location and has no direct access to some of those markets that it has offices at present. It will be difficult for the company to get first-hand information and make quick decisions to fight competitors. Moreover, Apogee Company may also lose its customers' interest and trust. People always tend to conduct business with somebody who they can see whenever they want to see. Apogee Company may easily become another unfortunate company that is forgotten by its customers in a region where it does not have a permanent office.
In the third place, it is senseless to compare the present operations of Apogee Company with the operations in the past. The world is changing and the business environment is different. Competition is probably more severe than before, for example, so Apogee Company does not have the relative advantage it had. The only way for the company to keep competitive is to keep tighter relationships with its customers and provide better and quicker services to them, but this may require Apogee Company to open more offices rather than to close most of the current offices.
In sum, the author's conclusion is unfounded. To improve its profitability, Apogee Company should analyze its business environment carefully and, without losing its current business relationships, explore new opportunities. If it simply closed its current offices, the most possible result is that it loses its customers and therefore suffers even lower profitability.
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