81. The following appeared in the editorial section of a daily newspaper.
“Although forecasts of presidential elections based on opinion polls measure current voter preference, many voters keep changing their minds about whom they prefer until the last few days before the balloting. Some do not even make a final decision until they enter the voting booth. Forecasts based on opinion polls are therefore little better at predicting election outcomes than a random guess would be.”
82. The following appeared in the editorial section of a newspaper in the country of West Cambria.
“The practice of officially changing speed limits on the highways — whether by increasing or decreasing them — is a dangerous one. Consider what happened over the past decade whenever neighboring East Cambria changed its speed limits: an average of 3 percent more automobile accidents occurred during the week following the change than had occurred during the week preceding it — even when the speed limit was lowered. This statistic shows that the change in speed limit adversely affected the alertness of drivers.”
83. The following appeared as part of a memorandum from the vice president of Nostrum, a large pharmaceutical corporation.
“The proposal to increase the health and retirement benefits that our employees receive should not be implemented at this time. An increase in these benefits is not only financially unjustified, since our last year’s profits were lower than those of the preceding year, but also unnecessary, since our chief competitor, Panacea, offers its employees lower health and retirement benefits than we currently offer. We can assume that our employees are reasonably satisfied with the health and retirement benefits that they now have since a recent survey indicated that two-thirds of the respondents viewed them favorably.”
84. The following appeared as part of an article on trends in television.
“A recent study of viewers’ attitudes toward prime-time television programs shows that many of the programs that were judged by their viewers to be of high quality appeared on (noncommercial) television networks, and that, on commercial television, the most popular shows are typically sponsored by the best-selling products. Thus, it follows that businesses who use commercial television to promote their products will achieve the greatest advertising success by sponsoring only highly-rated programs — and, ideally, programs resembling the highly-rated noncommercial programs on public channels as much as possible.”
85. The following appeared as part of an article in the business section of a daily newspaper.
“Company A has a large share of the international market in video-game hardware and software. Company B, the pioneer in these products, was once a $12 billion-a-year giant but collapsed when children became bored with its line of products. Thus Company A can also be expected to fail, especially given the fact that its games are now in so many American homes that the demand for them is nearly exhausted.”
86.The following appeared as part of an article in a photography magazine.
“When choosing whether to work in color or in black-and-white, the photographer who wishes to be successful should keep in mind that because color photographs are more true-to-life, magazines use more color photographs than black-and-white ones, and many newspapers are also starting to use color photographs. The realism of color also accounts for the fact that most portrait studios use more color film than black-and-white film. Furthermore, there are more types of color film than black-and-white film available today. Clearly, photographers who work in color have an advantage over those who work in black-and-white.”
1报业和杂志业用的多不代表整体的情况
2commits an either-or fallacy
3种类多和take advantage 没有必然联系
87. The following appeared as part of a letter to the editor of a local newspaper.
“It makes no sense that in most places fifteen year olds are not eligible for their driver’s license while people who are far older can retain all of their driving privileges by simply renewing their license. If older drivers can get these renewals, often without having to pass another driving test, then fifteen year olds should be eligible to get a license. Fifteen year olds typically have much better eyesight, especially at night; much better hand-eye coordination; and much quicker reflexes. They are also less likely to feel confused by unexpected developments or disoriented in unfamiliar surroundings, and they recover from injuries more quickly.”
1false analogy: It is absurd to say that the fifteen year olds should be eligible to get a license only because people who are far older can retain all of their driving privileges by simply renewing their license.
2gratuitous assumption: There is no evidence cited by the author can support that the only effort the adults have to pay is to renew their licenses. Likewise, it is imprudent to say the fifteen years olds typically have much better eyesight.
3absurd reasoning: 这个不是七宗罪里的是我随便瞎编的名字。不能因为说他们受伤恢复比较快就可以忽略这个问题拉。那他们要是把别人撞的很严重怎么办?
88. The following appeared in an ad for a book titled How to Write a Screenplay for a Movie.
“Writers who want to succeed should try to write film screenplays rather than books, since the average film tends to make greater profits than does even a best-selling book. It is true that some books are also made into films. However, our nation’s film producers are more likely to produce movies based on original screenplays than to produce films based on books, because in recent years the films that have sold the most tickets have usually been based on original screenplays.”
1The ultimate goal of the author can be something unrelated to the profit.
2As far as an individual writer is considered, the average situation is not always in accordance with his or her own.
3all things are equal
90. 已被ETS删除。
90. The following appeared in a memorandum from the ElectroWares company’s marketing department.
“Since our company started manufacturing and marketing a deluxe light bulb six months ago, sales of our economy light bulb — and company profits — have decreased significantly. Although the deluxe light bulb sells for 50 percent more than the economy bulb, it lasts twice as long. Therefore, to increase repeat sales and maximize profits, we should discontinue the deluxe light bulb.”
1causal oversimplification
2Besides the information given, a benefit-cost analysis should be given to decide whether the deluxe bulb is less profitable than the common one or not.
3 Thus the expected profit maximum will not be achieved. In fact the repeat sales will also cause rise of cost. Other ways according to the situation of the factory should be considered.