以下内容就是
The following appeared as part of the business plan of an investment and financial consulting firm:
“Studies suggest that an average coffee drinker’s consumption of coffee increases with age, from age 10 through age 60. Even after age 60, coffee consumption remains high. The average cola drinker’s consumption of cola, however, declines with increasing age. Both of these trends have remained stable for the past 40 years. Given that the number
of older adults will significantly increase as the population ages over the next 20 years, it follows that the demand for coffee will increase and the demand for cola will decrease during this period. We should, therefore, consider transferring our investments from Cola Loca to Early Bird Coffee.”
Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.
原文逻辑：
根据调查，咖啡的人均消耗量随着人年龄的增长而增加，而可乐的人均消耗量刚好相反，年龄增加消耗减少。由于接下来20年人口老龄化现象严重，所以咖啡肯定需求量大于可乐，于是我们应该把投资从可乐转移到咖啡上。
逻辑漏洞:
1. 忽略了其他因素对于咖啡，可乐人均消耗的影响。虽然未来二十年老龄人口增加，但是专家预计未来咖啡豆丰收可能受天气影响结果大幅度减少，于是咖啡豆价格上调，所以很有可能人们会减少对咖啡的购买转而购买可乐。于是转移投资可能并不可取。
2. 没有明确说明studies的来源，可能这个studies调查的机构不专业，而且调查对象的范围比较窄，所以调查应该请专业的统计机构或者大学里面统计学院来参与调查，拿出具体的统计数据来说话，这样才能得出可靠的结论。
3. 研究中的这些人可能不具代表性，可能调查的人都是从事夜间工作的，需要喝咖啡提神，所以才导致咖啡消耗量出现调查中的结果。要想得出正确结论，还得重新选取调查对象才行。
Sample:
The business plan argued that they should transfer their investment from Cola Loca to Early Bird Coffee. The plan cited two reasons to support this suggestion. The first reason is that coffee consumption remains high from age 10 through age 60, instead, the cola consumption declines with increasing age. The second reason is that in the following 20 years, the number of older adults will significantly increase as the population ages increase. But in my opinion, the plan is flawed.
Firstly, the author failed to consider some important factors that can be influential to the demand of coffee and cola. For example, the expert predicts that a drought will attack the plantation planting the coco nuts and the drought is expected to last for 10 years. So of course the harvest of coco nuts will decline greatly and the price for these raw materials will increase in the global market as a result. Sooner or later, the cost for producing coffee will be prohibitive, so people who prefer to drink coffee can not afford it any more. But there is no factor that can influence the cost of producing cola in the future. Absolutely most people will stop drinking coffee, some of them will also transfer their choice to cola. So it is not wise to transfer investment from Cola Loca to Early Bird Coffee.
Secondly, the statistics the author cited in the plan is unwarranted. Because the author did not mention who actually made this research. It is possible that this research is done by some unprofessional institution without enough experience. Considering this possibility, we can conclude that it is weak to draw any specific conclusion from these unjustified statistics. If the author still wants to use these statistics to support his idea, then he should ask a formal research company such as NanChang survey institution for help. Only after the result is confirmed can this reference be well-established.
The last but not the least, the aging people may be not representative of the whole population. Perhaps all these respondents are the people who especially prefer to drink coffee rather than drink cola. And may be most of the subject have to drink coffee because they need to work until late night and coffee makes them feel excited. If they have any choice, they would like to buy cola instead of coffee. So it is imprudent to regard these people as the representation of the population and draw such conclusion.
To sum up, we can know that there are several fatal flaws in this argument. In order to correct this, the author should consider all factors that may be crucial for the plan and make the evidence he cited in more convincing.
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