为了便于大家更好的对
The following appeared as part of an article in the business section of a local newspaper.
“The owners of the Cumquat Cafe evidently made a good business decision in moving to a new location, as can be seen from the fact that the Cafe will soon celebrate its second anniversary there. Moreover, it appears that businesses are not likely to succeed at the old location: since the Cafe’s move, three different businesses—a tanning salon, an antique emporium, and a pet–grooming shop—have occupied its former spot.”
地方报纸的商业版：
Cumquat咖啡店的拥有者最近做出了一个出色的商业决定：搬迁到新地址。从事实可见，咖啡店会很快在那里庆祝它的两周年店庆。而且这项业务看来在原址上不能获得成功。因为咖啡店搬迁后，3家不同的商家：一个日光浴沙龙，一个古董店，一个宠物婚嫁店就占据了它原来的地址。
1. 在新地址庆祝第二个周年纪念日只能说明，搬到新地址之后咖啡店继续存活了下来但是不是比原来好了作者并没有给出足够的证据证明。
2. 导致另外三家店无法在那个地点经营下去的原因可能并表示不是地址而是其他因素
3. 那个地址就算不适合开那三种店打算内并没有证据证明也不适合开咖啡店
In this argument the author concludes that Cumquat Cafe was correct in its decision to move to a new location. In support of this assessment the author points out that while the Cafe has been in business for two years at its new location, three businesses have failed at its previous location. The author’s line of reasoning is that the cause of the failure of the three businesses is the fact that they all occupied the same location. This argument is problematic in two important respects.
In the first place, no evidence has been offered to support the assumption that the reason the three businesses failed was their location. While location is an important contributing factor to a business’ success or failure, it is not the only such factor. Many other reasons—poor business practices, lack of advertising, or poor customer service—could just as likely account for their lack of success. Lacking a detailed analysis of the reasons these businesses failed, it would be foolish to attribute their failure to their location.
In the second place, while location may have been a factor which contributed to the failure of these businesses, the reason may not have been the location itself but rather the suitability of the business to the location. For example, a pet-grooming shop or a tanning salon located in a downtown metropolitan business district is unlikely to succeed simply because this type of business is obviously unsuitable to the location. On the other hand, a bank in the same location might be extremely successful simply because of its suitability to the location.
In conclusion, the author’s argument is unconvincing. To strengthen the conclusion, the author would have to evaluate other possible causes of the failure of the three businesses, then in each case eliminate all possible causes except location.
52. The following editorial appeared in the Elm City paper.
“The construction last year of a shopping mall in downtown Oak City was a mistake. Since the mall has opened, a number of local businesses have closed, and the downtown area suffers from an acute parking shortage, and arrests for crime and vagrancy have increased in the nearby Oak City Park. Elm City should pay attention to the example of the Oak City mall and deny the application to build a shopping mall in Elm City.”(新题)
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
“The construction of last year of a shopping mall in downtown Oak City has done little for the residents of the community. Since the mall has opened, a number of local businesses have closed, and the downtown area suffers from an acute parking shortage. In addition, because the mall’s owner lives in nearby Elm City, the profits derived from sales at the mall are not being returned to the community. These problems, coupled with the increase in trash and litter in nearby Oak City park, demonstrate that Oak City did not use good judgment in allowing the construction of the mall in the first place.”(老题)
Elm城的报纸上的社论：
去年在橡树城市中心修建购物中心是个错误。由于中心开业，大量的本地企业倒闭了。而且市中心受到严重缺乏停车位的困扰。在附近的橡树城公园拘捕的罪犯和流浪汉也增加了。榆树城应该注意橡树城购物中心的例子并防止在榆树城建立购物中心。
1. 作者所给出的所有问题和商场的建设都是时间上的前后关系而没有给出证据显示他们的因果关系
2. 作者只给出了不好的结果而没有给出好的影响很可能权衡利弊之后被选择的是要开这个商场
3. 这个商场的建立不应该也不能由此就否定以后所有的商场的建立
1， To begin with, the author fails to establish the causal relationship between the shopping mall's opening and the closing of local businesses.
2， Moreover, the author's conclusion is also based on the assumption that the shopping mall has caused the increase in crime and vagrancy.
3， Finally, even if the shopping mall did cause the closing of local business and the increasing crime and vagrancy in Oak City, the author's prediction that Elm City will suffer from the same fate as Oak City is still open to doubt.
(此文根据老题写作)In this editorial the author rebukes Oak City for allowing the construction of a new downtown shopping mall. Citing a number of problems that have occurred since the building of the mail, the author concludes that the residents of Oak City have not benefited from the mail and that Oak City exercised poor judgment in allowing the mail to be built. Among the problems cited by the author are the closure of local businesses, lack of parking in the downtown area, and increased trash and litter in a city park near the mall. Moreover, the author argues that profits derived from sales are not benefiting Oak City because the owner of the mall lives in another city. The author’s argument is problematic in several respects.
In the first place, the author assumes that addition of the new mall is the cause of the various problems cited. The only evidence offered to support this claim is that the construction of the mall occurred before these problems manifested themselves. However, this evidence is insufficient to establish the claim in question. A chronological relationship is only one of the indicators of a causal relationship between two events.
In the second place, the author has focused only on negative effects the mall has had on the city. A more detailed analysis of the situation might reveal that the positive benefits for the city far outweigh the problems on which the author focuses. For example, new jobs might have been created for the residents of Oak City, and tax revenues might have been increased for the city. Lacking a more comprehensive analysis of the impact of the mail on Oak City, it is presumptuous on the part of the author to conclude that Oak City’s decision to allow the mall to be built was incorrect.
In conclusion, the author’s argument is unconvincing. To strengthen the argument the author would have to demonstrate that the construction of the mall caused the various problems mentioned. The author would also have to show that the negative effects of the project outweighed the positive effects.