The recommendation endorsed in this argument is that residents of San Perdito
vote current mayor Montoya out of office, and re-elect former mayor Varro. The reasons
cited are that during Montoya's four years in office the population has decreased while
unemployment has increased, whereas during Varro's term unemployment declined
while the population grew. This argument involves the sort of gross oversimplification
and emotional appeal typical of political rhetoric; for this reason it is unconvincing.
First of all, the author assumes that the Montoya administration caused the
unemployment in San Perdito as well as its population loss. The line of reasoning is that
because Montoya was elected before the rise in unemployment and the decline in
population, the former event caused the latter. But this is fallacious reasoning unless
other possible causal explanations have been considered and ruled out. For example,
perhaps a statewide or nationwide recession is the cause of these events. Or perhaps the
current economic downturn is part of a larger picture of economic cycles and trends,
and has nothing to do with who happens to be mayor. Yet another possibility is that
Varro enjoyed a period of economic stability and Varro's own administration set the
stage for the unemployment and the decline in population the city is now experiencing
under Montoya.
Secondly, job availability and the economic health of one's community are issues
that affect people emotionally. The argument at hand might have been intentionally
oversimplified for the specific purpose of angering citizens of San Perdito, and thereby
turning them against the incumbent mayor. Arguments that bypass relevant, complex
reasoning in favor of stirring up emotions do nothing to establish their conclusions; they
are also unfair to the parties involved.
In conclusion, I would not cast my vote for Varro on the basis of this weak
argument. The author must provide support for the assumption that Mayor Montoya has
caused San Perdito's poor economy. Moreover, such support would have to involve
examining and eliminating other possible causal factors. Only with more convincing
evidence could this argument become more than just an emotional appeal.