Citing facts drawn from the color-film processing industry that indicate a
downward trend in the costs of film processing over a 24-year period, the author argues
that Olympic Foods will likewise be able to minimize costs and thus maximize profits
in the future. In support of this conclusion the author cites the general principle that "as
organizations learn how to do things better, they become more efficient." This principle,
coupled with the fact that Olympic Foods has had 25 years of experience in the food
processing industry leads to the author's rosy prediction. This argument is unconvincing
because it suffers from two critical flaws.
First, the author's forecast of minimal costs and maximum profits rests on the
gratuitous assumption that Olympic Foods' "long experience" has taught it how to do
things better. There is, however, no guarantee that this is the case. Nor does the author
cite any evidence to support this assumption. Just as likely, Olympic Foods has learned
nothing from its 25 years in the food-processing business. Lacking this assumption, the
expectation of increased efficiency is entirely unfounded.
Second, it is highly doubtful that the facts drawn from the color-film processing
industry are applicable to the food processing industry. Differences between the two
industries clearly outweigh the similarities, thus making the analogy highly less than
valid. For example, problems of spoilage, contamination, and timely transportation all
affect the food industry but are virtually absent in the film-processing industry.
Problems such as these might present insurmountable obstacles that prevent lowering
food-processing costs in the future.
As it stands the author's argument is not compelling. To strengthen the conclusion
that Olympic Foods will enjoy minimal costs and maximum profits in the future, the
author would have to provide evidence that the company has learned how to do things
better as a result of its 25 years of experience. Supporting examples drawn from
industries more similar to the food-processing industry would further substantiate the
author's view.