107. The following appeared as part of a letter to the editor of a local newspaper.
"Bayview High School is considering whether to require all of its students to wear uniforms while at school. Students attending Acorn Valley Academy, a private school in town, earn higher grades on average than Bayview students and are more likely to go on to college. Moreover, Acorn Valley reports few instances of tardiness, absenteeism, or discipline problems. Since Acorn Valley requires its students to wear uniforms, Bayview High School would do well to follow suit and require its students to wear uniforms as well."
1Other factors that may also contribute to the better performance of the students from Acorn Valley Academy should be considered and ruled out.
2The comparison between the performance of the former students of Acorn Valley Academy when they did not have to wear uniforms and that of the current students or the comparison between the performance of Acorn Valley Academy and that of its comparable counterpart should be given to support the author's assertion.
3Even if the wearing of uniforms is the most important reason explains the good performance of students from Acorn Valley Academy, the author's proposal is still open to doubt. The two schools are not similar. What is applicable in one school is probably to have bad effects in the other.
108. The following appeared in a memo to the Saluda town council from the town's business manager.
"Research indicates that those who exercise regularly are hospitalized less than half as often as those who don't exercise. By providing a well-equipped gym for Saluda's municipal employees, we should be able to reduce the cost of our group health insurance coverage by approximately 50% and thereby achieve a balanced town budget."
1.There is no causal relationship between the development of the employees' health and the provision of a well-equipped gym.
2.Therefore, the reduction of the cost of group health insurance coverage expected by the author is not guaranteed.
3.Even if the provision of the gym can cause a reduction of the cost, no one can rely on it to achieve a balanced town budget since the health incidents occur very randomly.
113. The following appeared in a memorandum written by the assistant manager of a store that sells gourmet food items from various countries.
"An interesting discovery was made last month at a local wine store: the store sold more French than Italian wine on days when recordings of French accordion music were played, but more Italian wine was sold on days when Italian songs were played. Therefore, I recommend that we put food specialties from one particular country on sale for a week at a time and play only music from that country while the sale is going on. By this means we will increase our profits in the same way that the wine store did, and we will be able to predict more precisely what items we should stock at any given time."
1作者只说了放哪个国家的音乐哪个国家的酒卖的就好但是没有指明利润是否有所上升。很可能别的酒的销量降低抵消了那种酒的销量上升带来的利润增加
2酒店的成功经验用在食品店不一定可行
3就算可能会提高收益。但是还要考虑成本方面的问题才能最后确定利润是否会上升也就是最后确定该方案是否可行。
110. The following appeared in a memorandum from the director of research and development at Ready-to-Ware, a software engineering firm.
"The package of benefits and incentives that Ready-to-Ware offers to professional staff is too costly. Our quarterly profits have declined since the package was introduced two years ago, at the time of our incorporation. Moreover, the package had little positive effect, as we have had only marginal success in recruiting and training high-quality professional staff. To become more profitable again, Ready-to-Ware should, therefore, offer the reduced benefits package that was in place two years ago and use the savings to fund our current research and development initiatives."
1The causal relationship between the benefit package given to the professional staff and the decline of the profit is not guaranteed by the coincidence that the latter occured just after the latter. Other factors that may contribute to the decline in the profit should also be considered and ruled out.
2Research and development is a time-consuming process. Two years is not a long enough period to see the result and positive effects.
3Even if the package is really too high and caused the declne of profit, it is still imprudent to say that the reduced benefits package that was in place two years ago will definitely work.
111. The following appeared in a memorandum from the vice-president of the Dolci Candy Company.
"Given the success of our premium and most expensive line of chocolate candies in a recent taste test and the subsequent increase in sales, we should shift our business focus to producing additional lines of premium candy and discontinuing our lesser-priced, ordinary candies. When the current economic boom ends and consumers can no longer buy major luxury items, such as cars, they will still be able to afford small luxuries, such as expensive candies."
1Success in the taste test and the subsequent test do not guarantee the profitability of the premium and most expensive chocolate candies until the cost-benefit analysis has been made.
2Even if the premium and most expensive chocolate candies are profitable at the original scale, it is still imprudent to say that the additional line will also bring profit the company.
3The vice president's prediction of the future especially after the economic boom is groundless without any substantive evidence.
112. The following appeared in a memorandum from the business office of the Lovin' Cupful, a national restaurant chain.
"The Lovin' Cupful franchises in our northeast region have begun serving customers FasT, a brand new powdered instant tea, in place of brewed tea. From what waiters report, it seems that only 2 percent of the customers have complained about the taste and that customers who want refills typically ask for more 'tea.' Apparently, then, about 98 percent of the customers are perfectly happy with the switch, or else they cannot tell powdered instant from brewed tea. Therefore, in order to take advantage of the lower price per pound of FasT, all of our restaurants should begin substituting it for brewed tea."
1It does not mean that the customers who did not complain about the tea were satisfied with the fast or felt indifference with the replacement.
2Although the customers can not tell the difference between the fast the brewed tea for a while, it does not guarantee the continuity in the future.
3Likewise, the success of one branch of the company does not indicate the applicability in all the other branches.
113. The following appeared in a memorandum from the director of marketing for a pharmaceutical company.
"According to a survey of 5,000 urban residents, the prevalence of stress headaches increases with educational level, so that stress headaches occur most often among people with graduate-school degrees. It is well established that, nationally, higher educational levels usually correspond with higher levels of income. Therefore, in marketing our new pain remedy, Omnilixir, we should send free samples primarily to graduate students and to people with graduate degrees, and we should concentrate on advertising in professional journals rather than in general-interest magazines."
1The result of the survey is unbelievable until the facts ,such as who held the survey; who responded to the survey, are given.
2Higher income does not guarantee higher purchase of the company's product.
3It can be more costly to publish advertisement on professional journals than on the general-interest magazines, thus making the proposal not practical.
114. The following appeared as part of an editorial in the Waymarsh City newspaper.
"Last year the parents of first graders in our school district expressed satisfaction with the reading skills their children developed but complained strongly about their children's math skills. To remedy this serious problem and improve our district's elementary education, everyone in the teacher-training program at Waymarsh University should be required to take more courses in mathematics."
1The situation of the first graders can not represent the elementary education of the district as a whole.
2Other factors other than the school's education that may contribute to the inadequacy of the first graders' math should be considered and ruled out.It is likely that the one that should be responsible for the complaint are the parents themselves.
3Therefore the suggestion proposed by the authour of the editorial is groundless or at least insufficient.
115. The following is from an editorial that appeared in a River City newspaper.
"The Clio Development Group wants to build a multilevel parking garage on Dock Street in River City, but the plan should not be approved. Most of the buildings on the block would then have to be demolished. Because these buildings were erected decades ago, they have historic significance and must therefore be preserved as economic assets in the effort to revitalize a restored riverfront area. Recall how Lakesburg has benefited from business increases in its historic downtown center. Moreover, there is plenty of vacant land for a parking lot elsewhere in River City."
116. The following appeared in a corporate planning memorandum for a company that develops amusement parks.
"Because travel from our country to foreign countries has increased dramatically in recent years, our next project should be a World Tour theme park with replicas of famous foreign buildings, rides that have international themes, and refreshment stands serving only foods from the country represented by the nearest ride. The best location would be near our capital city, which has large percentages of international residents and of children under the age of 16. Given the advantages of this site and the growing interest in foreign countries, the World Tour theme park should be as successful as our Space Travel theme park, where attendance has increased tenfold over the past decade."
1Increasing travel from the country the mentioned company belongs to foreign countries does not necessarily mean there is also a increasing interest in the amusement parks with a world tour theme.
2Therefore, the proposal that the amusement park should be bulit in the capital city is also groundless.
3Even if there is an increasing interest in the parks with a theme of world tour, it is not necessary to go to the extreme such us making the refreshment stands serve only foods from the country represented by the nearest ride.
4What is more, the company's plan is based on a false analogy that the World tour theme park should be as successful as the Space travel theme park.
117. The following appeared in a memorandum from the publisher to the staff of The Clarion, a large metropolitan newspaper.
"During the recent campaign for mayor, a clear majority of city readers who responded to our survey indicated a desire for more news about city government. To increase circulation, and thus our profits, we should therefore consistently devote a greater proportion of space in all editions of The Clarion to coverage of local news."
1The result of the survey is doubtful. First, it is natural that public will pay more attention to the news about city government during the campaign period. It is very imprudent to choose this time to conduct a survey, thus making the result unrepresentative. Second, there is no detailed information about the survey including who conducted the survey, who responded to the survey, how did they hold the survey.
2Therefore the proposal to devote constant greater proportion of space in all editions of the Clarion to coverage of local news is groundless.
3Even if there is consistent greater interest about local news even after the campaign, it is still too reckless to cover more local news. The response of the readers who prefer reading other kinds of news and some other factors should be considered. Unless the benefit-cost analysis has been given, the proposal should not be put into practice.
118. The following appeared in a memorandum from the assistant manager of Pageturner Books.
"Over the past two years, Pageturner's profits have decreased by five percent, even though we have added a popular café as well as a music section selling CD's and tapes. At the same time, we have experienced an increase in the theft of merchandise. We should therefore follow the example of Thoreau Books, which increased its profits after putting copies of its most frequently stolen books on a high shelf behind the payment counter. By doing likewise with copies of the titles that our staff reported stolen last year, we too can increase profitability."
1Admittedly, the theft of merchandise will decrease the profit to a certain degree, but it is definitely not the only reason. Other factors should be considered and ruled out.
2The proposal commits a fallacy 0f false analogy.
3What was an applicable solution to the theft of merchandise last year is not necessarily practical this year.
119. The following appeared in a letter to the editor of a River City newspaper.
"The Clio Development Group's plan for a multilevel parking garage on Dock Street should be approved in order to strengthen the economy of the surrounding area. Although most of the buildings on the block would have to be demolished, they are among the oldest in the city and thus of little current economic value. Those who oppose the project should realize that historic preservation cannot be the only consideration: even Athens or Jerusalem will knock down old buildings to put up new ones that improve the local economy."
1No evidence is given to support the direct causal relationship between the buliding of mutilevel parking garage on Dock Streets with the development of the economy of the surrounding area.
2Admittedly, the historic preservation can not be the only consideration when decide whether to demolish the historic buildings or not. It is also reckless to ignore the historic preservation. A decision should be made after balancing all the factors.
3The fact cited by the writter of the letter that even Athens or Jerusalem will knock down old buildings to put up news one can not serve as a evidence to approve the demolishment of the old buildings on the Dock street.
120. The following appeared in a memorandum from the owner of Carlo's Clothing to the staff.
"Since Disc Depot, the music store on the next block, began a new radio advertising campaign last year, its business has grown dramatically, as evidenced by the large increase in foot traffic into the store. While the Disc Depot's owners have apparently become wealthy enough to retire, profits at Carlo's Clothing have remained stagnant for the past three years. In order to boost our sales and profits, we should therefore switch from newspaper advertising to frequent radio advertisements like those for Disc Depot."
1The foot trafic into the store and the increase of owners' personal wealth can not indicate the business growth of the Disc Depot.
2The author commits a fallacy of all things are equal.
3The author commits a fallacy of false analogy.
4Other factors other than the radio advertisement that may contribute to the business growth of Disc depot should be considered and ruled out. Likewise, it is possible that there are some other reasons can explain the stagnant profit of carlo's clothing.
121. The following appeared as part of the business plan of the Capital Idea investment firm.
"Across town in the Park Hill district, the Thespian Theater, Pizzazz Pizza, and the Niblick Golf Club have all had business increases within the past two years. Capital Idea should therefore invest in the Roxy Playhouse, the Slice-o'-Pizza, and the Divot Golf Club, three new businesses in the Irongate district. As a condition, we should require them to participate in a special program: Any customer who patronizes two of the businesses will receive a substantial discount at the third. By motivating customers to patronize all three, we will thus contribute to the profitability of each and maximize our return."
1The author commits a fallacy of false analogy.
2Therefore the proposal of investment in the Irongate district is groundless. No investment should be made until other factors have been considered and the benefit-cost analysis has been made.
3The program suggested by the author is reckless or even ridiculous. The possible result can be the opposite of the author's imagination because the consumers have interest of only one or two of the three stores.
1The business increases occurred in the past two years. No one can guarantee the future profit.
2The three new companies are not necessarily analogous to those profitable ones.
3The condition that is required is absurd. There is no causal relationship between the condition and the collective profit.
122. The following appeared as part of an article in a newsletter for farmers.
"Users of Solacium, a medicinal herb now grown mainly in Asia, report that it relieves tension and promotes deep sleep. A recent study indicates that a large number of college students who took pills containing one of the ingredients in Solacium suffered less anxiety. To satisfy the anticipated demands for this very promising therapeutic herb and to reap the financial benefits, farmers in this country should begin growing it."
1It is possible that there are some other plants have the same effect to relieve tension and promote deep sleep , but are easier cultivated and gained compared with the mentioned herb.
2No evidence can serve as an evidence that the demands of this therapeutic herb is great. And it is too early to assert the financial benefits gained from growing it.
3The author commits a fallacy of false analogy. The plant that can be grown in Asia can die very easily in other regions.
123. The following appeared in a memorandum from the president of Aurora, a company that sells organic milk (milk produced without the use of chemical additives).
"Sales of organic food products in this country have tripled over the past five years. If Aurora is to profit from this continuing trend, we must diversify and start selling products such as organic orange juice and organic eggs in addition to our regular product line. With the recent increase of articles in health magazines questioning the safety of milk and other food products, customers are even more likely to buy our line of organic products. And to help ensure our successful expansion, we should hire the founder of a chain of health-food stores to serve as our vice-president of marketing."
1The success of the profit gain in the sales of organic food products can not guarantee the same profit increase in the other organic products.
2The consumers can be affected by the magazines, but to what degree is not provided by the author.
3There is no causal relationship between the employment of the founder of a chain of health-food stores and the successful expansion.
124. The following appeared in a memorandum from the human resources department of Diversified Manufacturing.
"Managers at our central office report that their employees tend to be most productive in the days immediately before a vacation. To help counteract our declining market share, we could increase the productivity of our professional staff members, who receive a total of four weeks paid vacation a year, by allowing them to take no more than one week of vacation at a time. They will thus take more vacation breaks during a year and give us more days of maximum productivity, thereby helping to increase our market share.
1The author commits a fallacy of false analogy.
2Other factors that may contribute to the declining market share of Diversified Manufacturing other than the producitivity of the employers' productivity of the human resources department should be considered.
3The author ignore that when a person is looking forward to taking a vacation his or her productivity can be reduced thus offseting the higher productivity after the vacation.
125. The following appeared in a memorandum from a regional supervisor of post office operations.
"During a two-week study of postal operations, the Presto City post office handled about twice as many items as the Lento City post office, even though the cities are about the same size. Moreover, customer satisfaction appears to be higher in Presto City, since the study found fewer complaints regarding the Presto City post office. Therefore, the postmasters at these two offices should exchange assignments: the Presto City postmaster will solve the problems of inefficiency and customer dissatisfaction at the Lento City office while the Lento City postmaster learns firsthand the superior methods of Presto City."
1Two-week is too short a period that is not long enough to draw conclusion about the operations and customer satisfication of the two post offices.
2Size is not the only factor to consider when judge the scale of the postal service of the two cities.
3The proposed appointments of the two postmasters can be harmful to the two post offices since they two are not familiar with the other city's situation.
126. The following appeared in a memorandum written by the managing director of the Exeunt Theater Company.
"Now that we have moved to a larger theater, we can expect to increase our revenues from ticket sales. To further increase profits, we should start producing the plays that have been most successful when they were performed in our nation's largest cities. In addition, we should hire the Adlib Theater Company's director of fund-raising, since corporate donations to Adlib have increased significantly over the three years that she has worked for Adlib."
1The author commits a fallacy of false analogy.这个错误犯了两次哦一个是在大城市受欢迎的剧 不一定在这里也受欢迎此外那个director在别的地方成功换了地方不一定成功。
2The author commits a fallacy of all things are equal.
3Other factors other than the good performance of the Adlib Theater Company's director of fund-raising should be considered.
127. The following appeared in a memorandum from the human resources department of HomeStyle, a house remodeling business.
"This year, despite HomeStyle's move to new office space, we have seen a decline in both company morale and productivity, and a corresponding increase in administrative costs. To rectify these problems, we should begin using a newly developed software package for performance appraisal and feedback. Managers will save time by simply choosing comments from a preexisting list; then the software will automatically generate feedback for the employee. The Human Resources department at CounterBalance, the manufacturer of the countertops we install, reports satisfaction with the package."
1The decline of the morale and productivity can simply be the result of the move, thus making the proposal to use a newly developed software package useless.
2The software package seems not able to solve new problems out of the preexisting list.
3The manufacturer will apparently report satisfaction with its own products.
4The author commits a fallacy of false analogy.
128. The following appeared as part of an article in a weekly newsmagazine.
"The country of Oleum can best solve the problem of its balance of trade deficit by further increasing the tax on its major import, crude oil. After Oleum increased the tax on imported crude oil four months ago, consumption of gasoline declined by 20 percent. Therefore, by imposing a second and significantly higher tax increase next year, Oleum will dramatically decrease its balance of trade deficit."
1The author commits a fallcay of all things are equal.
2Other factors such as other countries' feedback should be considered.
3It is imprudent to say the best way to solve the problem is to further increase the tax on crude oil until other ways are considered.
129. The following appeared as part of a business plan by the Capital Idea investment firm.
"In recent years the worldwide demand for fish has grown, and improvements in fishing technology have made larger catches and thus increased supply possible: for example, last year's tuna catch was 9 percent greater than the previous year's. To capitalize on these trends, we should therefore invest in the new pugfish processing plant on Pugfish Island, where increasing revenues from tourism indicate a strong local economy."
1The author commits a fallacy of all things are equal.
2Other factors such as environmental reservation should be considered.
3It is too reckless to allege that the investment firm will gain profit in the new pugfish processing plant only after some superficial analysis.
130. The following appeared in a speech by a stockholder of Consolidated Industries at the company's annual stockholders' meeting.
"In the computer hardware division last year, profits fell significantly below projections, the product line decreased from twenty to only five items, and expenditures for employee benefits increased by 15 percent. Nevertheless, Consolidated's board of directors has approved an annual salary of over one million dollars for our company's chief executive officer. The present board members should be replaced because they are unconcerned about the increasing costs of employee benefits and salaries, in spite of the company's problems generating income."
1Other factors that may contribute to the fall of profit should be considered.
2The salary of the CEO should be judged by the contribution they make to the companies. If they do a lot to help the company gain profit, they deserve the high salary.
3Therefore, it is too imprudent to replace the present board members.
131. The following appeared in a memorandum from the business planning department of Avia Airlines.
"Of all the cities in their region, Beaumont and Fletcher are showing the fastest growth in the number of new businesses. Therefore, Avia should establish a commuter route between them as a means of countering recent losses on its main passenger routes. And to make the commuter route more profitable from the outset, Avia should offer a 1/3 discount on tickets purchased within two days of the flight. Unlike tickets bought earlier, discount tickets will be nonrefundable, and so gain from their sale will be greater."
1Fast growth of new businesses does not mean the number of the commuters between the two cities is also great.
2What is the cost of the commuter route. Whether it can stand such a reduction of ticket price.
3It is likely that the commuters will not increase the times they commute between the two cities only because the ticket price has been reduced.
132. The following appeared in a memorandum from the vice-president of Gigantis, a development company that builds and leases retail store facilities.
"Nationwide over the past five years, sales have increased significantly at outlet stores that deal exclusively in reduced-price merchandise. Therefore, we should publicize the new mall that we are building at Pleasantville as a central location for outlet shopping and rent store space only to outlet companies. By taking advantage of the success of outlet stores, this plan should help ensure full occupancy of the mall and enable us to recover quickly the costs of building the mall."
1The author commits a fallacy of all things are equal.
2Even if the trend will continue for some time, rent store space only to outlet companies still goes to the extreme.
3Other factors should be considered. And it is too early to guarantee the success.
133. The following appeared in a memorandum written by the chair of the music department to the president of Omega University.
"Mental health experts have observed that symptoms of mental illness are less pronounced in many patients after group music-therapy sessions, and job openings in the music-therapy field have increased during the past year. Consequently, graduates from our degree program for music therapists should have no trouble finding good positions. To help improve the financial status of Omega University, we should therefore expand our music-therapy degree program by increasing its enrollment targets."
1It is possible that the job market for music-therapists has already been saturated.
2Even if there is a demand for music-therapists, it is too imprudent to allege that the graduates of the music department of Omega University should have no trouble finding good positions.
3The author commits a fallacy of all things are equal.
4There some other considerations when concerning whether to expand the music-therapy degree program.
134. The following appeared in a memorandum to the work-group supervisors of the GBS Company.
"The CoffeeCart beverage and food service located in the lobby of our main office building is not earning enough in sales to cover its costs, and so the cart may discontinue operating at GBS. Given the low staff morale, as evidenced by the increase in the number of employees leaving the company, the loss of this service could present a problem, especially since the staff morale questionnaire showed widespread dissatisfaction with the snack machines. Therefore, supervisors should remind the employees in their group to patronize the cart - after all, it was leased for their convenience so that they would not have to walk over to the cafeteria on breaks."
1The evidence provided is not sufficient for the conclusion that the morale is low.
2The CoffeeCart beverage and food service may deserve the loss since it can provide only very low quality beverage.
3It is absurd to remind the employees to patronize the cart. To do so will absolutely distort the original consideration to lease the cart.
135. The following appeared as part of an article in a trade magazine.
"During a recent trial period in which government inspections at selected meat-processing plants were more frequent, the amount of bacteria in samples of processed chicken decreased by 50 percent on average from the previous year's level. These results indicate that the trial schedule should be made permanent: by continuing with more frequent inspections, the government could thus cut in half the incidence of stomach and intestinal infections throughout the country. In the meantime, consumers of Excel Meats should be safe from infection because Excel's main processing plant has shown more improvement in eliminating bacterial contamination than any other plant cited in the government report."
1The author commits a fallacy of insufficient sample.
2Bacteria in the processed meat is not the only channel than can spread stomach an intestinal infections.
3It is too early to allege that consumers of Excel meats should be safe from infection.