12. 14, (商业/决策/先并列后递进)The following appeared in a memo from the owner of Green Thumb Gardening Center, a small business serving a suburban town.
"There is evidence that consumers are becoming more and more interested in growing their own vegetables. A national survey(1) conducted last month indicated that many consumers(3) were dissatisfied with the quality of fresh vegetables available in supermarkets. And locally, the gardening magazine Great Gardens has sold out at the Village News stand(6) three months in a row(4,5). Thus, we at Green Thumb Gardening Center can increase our profits by greatly expanding the variety of vegetable seeds we stock for gardeners(2) this coming spring(7)." ★★1,40, 117, 219
1. The argument depends on a dubious assumption that the national levels of satisfaction with store-bought groceries could reflects the level of a certain area. (C.S) ★★★★
2. The argument falsely assumes that consumers who are dissatisfied with store-bought groceries are likely to grow their own vegetables instead. (U.A/I.E) ★★★★★
3. The arguer fails to provide any information about what fraction of consumers buy their vegetables from supermarkets. (V.D/selective sample) ★★
4. The arguer fails to convince us that the gardening magazine Great Gardens is indeed popular among residents. (I.I) ★★
5. We do not know the content and circulation of the magazine, thus the fact that the magazine has sold out three months in a row does not necessarily indicate that people in this area are interested in planting vegetables themselves. (I.I/I.E) ★★★
6. The situation at one certain news stand does not prove that people in this area are interested in gardening. (quantity of the sample) ★★★
7. The arguer fails to consider the possible cost of the proposed action. (I.T/adv:disadv) ★★★★
Green Thumb Gardening Center,growing their own vegetables 论断:大量扩大蔬菜种子的储存种类,就能提高赢利。因为有证据表明消费者对于自己种蔬菜越来越有兴趣,他举例说当种的一种农艺杂志很有市场。另外他说,一项全国性调查显示消费者对于超市里蔬菜的质量不满意,以说明为什么人们对于自己种蔬菜越来越感兴趣。 ·论断的前提人们愿意来这儿买种子自己回家种蔬菜。论者举例说当地有一种农艺杂志三个月里很快卖光,他认为这是人们对于自己种蔬菜越来越感兴趣的一个证明。但实际上农艺杂志的内容是什么,论者没有告诉我们,买这本杂志的人目的是什么,是为种菜吗?还是为了美化自己的花园去种花?如果杂志里有关种蔬菜的内容非常少,就不足以说明人们对于自己种蔬菜感趣。另外论者甚至没有提供这份杂志的具体销量,仅说它很快卖光。要知道,杂志发行量若很小的话,不需要有很多人对它感兴趣也能有这样的效果。 ·为了说明人们为什么会对自己种蔬菜感兴趣,论者提到了一份全国性的调查,这份调查表明人们对于超市里蔬菜不满意。但这个论据首先是不合适的。一份全国性调查并不能说明一个城郊地区的状况。因为很有可能这份全国性的调查主要集中在大城市,被调查的人也都是住市中心的人,在那里超市可能是他们购买蔬菜的最主要途径。但这显然与一个城郊地区的特征不符,这里的人很可能比城市里的人更容易买到新鲜、好的蔬菜,而且他们也不像城市里那样依赖超市,还有杂货店甚至是农场。另外对于超市里的蔬菜不满意,也不必然带来自己种菜,这将花费人们大量的时间和精力,论断没有说这份调查是否表明不满意超市蔬菜的人都想自己种菜。 ·论断认为扩弃种子种类就会带来营利,也犯了一个常识性错误,太过武断。如果说种类多顾客挑选余地大,更容易更多地购买,那么其中的成本问题论者没有提供。是不是具体多几种肯定会有市场的种类会更好一些?扩充种类必然会增加成本,那么相应的赢利就会被抵销。这其中的细节问题论者都没有考虑到,武断得出结论很有可能造成失败。结论:论者没有调查清楚人们对于园艺的兴趣是什么,又引用了一份不合适的调查来支持他的观点,得出的结论必然是错误的。要想让人们接受他的建议,论者还需要提供关于愿意自己种蔬菜的人有多少,他们为什么这么做,并对市场有更进一步的了解,究意什么样的种类更吸引人。
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